April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend
- EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April
- UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
- CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
- Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
- MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.1% in April, from 3.2% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price-cap cut contributes about a third of that inflation fall, the rest is broad-based.
- Services inflation likely slowed to 5.4% in April, 0.1pp stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
- The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
- The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
- …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
- The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Lower borrowing costs sparked a wave of refinancing in Q1, which likely will unwind in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening growth and slowing inflation, but watch the jump in input costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
An ugly report, but don't call it stagflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, and the outlook is benign
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: A setback, in line with the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The six-month spell of Thai deflation comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia