Singaporean GDP growth picks up in Q1 on recovering external demand
MAS opens the door to easing in Q4
Base effects are now dominating Philippine sales growth, masking weak marginal trends
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Slowing wage gains, normalized supply chains, and a shrinking money supply will constrain inflation…
- …But anything can happen over periods as short as a few months, and the Fed is backward-looking.
- March core retail sales appear to have been soft, capping a sluggish first quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Below-consensus Q1 GDP growth in Singapore, despite friendly base effects, was no surprise to us...
- … As the uneven recover y in electronics and weaker construction activity continue to weigh on growth.
- The MAS has star ted making noise about easing in Q4, but we remain unconvinced, for now.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s marked fall in exports in March highlights the need to boost domestic demand.
- After factoring out base effects and seasonality, exports are probably enjoying a modest rebound.
- The equipment & consumer goods trade -in schemes should be significant, despite slow policymaking.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Our preliminary forecasts for France and Germany point to downside risks to EZ core inflation in April.
- A VAT hike on gas in Germany and higher oil prices are near-term upside risks to energy inflation.
- Italy will struggle to shrink its budget deficit to 3% any time soon; will the EU take note?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Generous seasonals still depressing claims, but an uptrend is coming.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: A dovish hold—as expected—with a clear signal of a June cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Daily Monitor
In one line: A dovish hold—as expected—with a clear signal of a June cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Industry was a bigger drag on Italian Q1 GDP than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Building hopes of rate cuts boost buyer demand and house prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China consumer prices slow as producer deflation deepens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Producer price deflation deepens further, thanks to excess capacity
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Base effects are masking lacklustre momentum in Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Some downside growth risks recognized, but attention still mostly on inflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
- Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
- The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
