In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Small correction in March is just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still a minor technical recession last year, but the economy is already rebounding.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Post-holiday improvement in Caixin, Korean PMIs; Japanese Tankan fades; Korean exports sustain recovery trend
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Expect little change in the ISM services index today; either way, it’s a poor guide to services spending.
- The ADP employment report is hopelessly unreliable; take it seriously at your peril.
- The JOLTS quit rate is consistent with much weaker wage growth across the spring and summer, at least.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s recovery remains on a solid footing, aided by improving domestic and external conditions.
- The performance is encouraging, but caution is warranted, as the upturn could still face headwinds.
- The good start to the year won’t stop the BCCh cutting rates further, which is still badly needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The big drop in Vietnamese GDP growth to 5.7% in Q1 was due mainly to seasonal noise unwinding…
- …Trade enjoyed a robust start to the year, but the same cannot be said for household spending.
- We push back our expectation for the first BI cut to Q4, given rising and stubborn food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
- Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
- Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- February’s money and credit data show consumer caution fading, which should support GDP growth.
- Mortgage approvals hit an 18-month high, and lumpsum repayments fell to their lowest since May 2020.
- Declines in mortgage interest rates this year will boost the housing market and spending further.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The JOLTS quit rate flagged the surge in wages during the Great Rehiring. It now points to a sharp slowdown.
- Vehicle sales were probably little changed in March, suggesting a drag on Q1 consumption growth.
- A nascent recovery in manufacturing is finding its feet, but core goods prices look set to continue falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
