In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Encouraging wage slowdown keeps the MPC on track to cut rates again in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Dovish, but upside risks loom in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Indonesian retail sales growth remains skin-deep
A reassuring start to the third quarter for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Weak job gains require rapid easing, but the Fed isn’t sensing the urgency
- EUROZONE - All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday
- UK - More short-term borrowing, only partially offset by tax hikes
- CHINA+ - Insipid core consumer inflation confirms sorry demand picture
- EM ASIA - BNM likely to enjoy a ‘Goldilocks’ moment, with a pause until 2025
- LATAM - Inflation moderates in Mexico, but political uncertainty looms large
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the August core CPI, driven by rebounds in hospital charges and airline fares.
- Underlying core services inflation probably continued to decline, while goods prices likely rose weakly.
- The rebounding CPI components don’t feed into the core PCE, but the Fed still looks set to ease by 25bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s inflation remains contained, but fiscal uncertainty and BRL depreciation are worrying.
- Food and energy prices provide temporary relief amid rising inflation expectations and policy noise.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen sharply, strengthening the case for accelerated rate cuts from BanRep.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian sales growth rose to a four-month high in July, but the underlying trends remain weak…
- …Consumer confidence is still subdued year-over- year, and this could soon hurt borrowing appetite.
- The mirror image in Philippine sales growth is just as misleading; support from jobs has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s exports surprised to the upside, thanks to a surge in EU and BRICS shipments and car demand.
- Imports imploded, reflecting rapidly deteriorating domestic demand; more stimulus is needed.
- Foreign exchange reserves rose in August due to a higher valuation effect on currency and bond assets.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Italian industry remains in recession in Q3, in line with its German counterpart…
- ...Spanish industry is now joining the recession party, though it is still faring better than elsewhere.
- The outlook for EZ industry remains bleak, especially given signs of still-weak import demand from China.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Job growth slowed in H1, but surveys suggest hiring is improving, while redundancies remain low.
- Pay growth continues to ease, but less than AWE shows, and it remains too high for comfort.
- The labour market is loosening gradually but is far from collapsing; the MPC can afford to wait.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Households plan to sustain 5% annualized nominal spending growth, despite income gains of just 3%...
- ...That requires people to slash the saving rate to a record low 1%, during a worsening labor market.
- NFIB’s headline index probably dipped in August on political news, but capex plans likely worsened too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Headline inflation in Mexico moderated in August, but political risk and the MXN raise concerns.
- AMLO’s populist plans threaten to overshadow the improving inflation outlook via an MXN sell-off.
- The labour market is weakening, as formal job growth slows and informal employment dominates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Electronics to the US for AI-related investment continue to support Taiwanese export growth…
- …This demand is likely to remain firm, but its strong performance hides weakness elsewhere.
- The July fall in Malaysian retail sales growth is more likely stabilisation, rather than real weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
