Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.
- In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.
In one line: Decent headline, dovish selling price expectations.
- Reliable surveys point to September payrolls rising at a similarly slow pace as the past couple months.
- Seasonal problems signal a jump in hospitality jobs, but federal policies likely weighed on education jobs.
- The unemployment rate likely crept up, while a calendar quirk probably dampened average earnings.
- Import growth is far outpacing exports in Brazil, as the strong BRL and Chinese goods shift trade flows.
- High reserves and slowing demand are buffers, but financing gaps leave Brazil vulnerable to shocks.
- Mexico’s labour market is weakening, with formal job creation stalling, wages rising and capex subdued.
- Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone.
- The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.
- Accelerating corporate borrowing growth and strong consumer credit bode well for August GDP.
- Bank lending to firms is rising at the fastest rate since at least 2012, if we ignore pandemic disruption.
- Solid credit flows and a robust housing market suggest interest rates are only slightly restrictive.
Turnaround in consumers’ spending built on shaky foundations.
In one line: Consistent with a rebound in GDP in Q3.
In one line: Another one for relatively hawkish policymakers.
Tokyo headline inflation steady, after launch of childcare subsidies
- Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
- Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
- The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO LAUNCH INVESTMENT STIMULUS SOON
- - BOJ SHOULD STILL HIKE, DESPITE POLITICAL RUCTIONS
- - KOREA’S EXPORTS TUMBLE IN SEPTEMBER
- Spending numbers up to August point to 3% growth in third quarter consumption...
- ...But that pace looks unsustainable, given the myriad headwinds facing households.
- Real after-tax incomes are flatlining, the saving rate is already low, and balance sheets are more fragile.
- Monetary policy in Mexico is shifting cautiously, as inflation is sticky and growth prospects weaker.
- The trade deficit widened in August due to the oil sector and tariff-related external uncertainty.
- MXN appreciation and USMCA compliance support stability, despite ongoing external and fiscal risks.
- The RBI’s meeting on Wednesday is ‘live’, and we’re with the minority for a fresh 25bp rate cut.
- Indonesia’s final 2026 budget—that is, Mr. Purbaya’s first—reveals his less hawkish hand…
- …We’re more convinced now that the deficit will hit the 3%-of-GDP limit in 2026, given the rosy targets.
- China is preparing to counter the recent demand and investment slump with targeted stimulus…
- …Policy banks will likely provide RMB500B—leveraged up several times—to unblock local project investment.
- Steady Tokyo consumer inflation won’t shift the BoJ’s determination to normalise interest rates.
- We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
- Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
- Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.
- Data in the past month have been a mixed bag, but underlying activity is holding up well.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Solid growth will limit the emergence of spare capacity, keeping the MPC on hold for the rest of 2025.
