- The fledgling recovery in Indonesian sales growth masked a persistent loss of momentum in Q2.
- Slowing real wage growth is likely to put pressure on Malaysian retail sales until the end of the year.
- Taiwan’s electronics exports continue to recover, despite the sharp drop in export growth in July.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
- Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
- Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: China's July exports disappoint market expectations
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves rise on positive currency and asset valuation effects
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's July export growth falls short of expectations amid slowing momentum
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s export rebound disappoints markets, likely due to deeper-than-expected fall in car shipments to the US
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s manufacturing activity continues to grow in July, but at a slower pace
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Caixin PMI shows shrinking manufacturing activity for the first time in 9 months on extreme weather
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Base effects were behind the Philippines’ consensus-matching Q2 GDP print, nothing more.
- Consumption is now in a shallow recession, while the post-Covid catch-up in capex is still struggling.
- We have raised our forecasts, but still see GDP growth slowing to 5.4% this year and 5.2% in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Adverse weather shrinks China’s manufacturing activity; Korea’s WDA export growth slowdown likely temporary
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Non-core pressures drive significant gains, offsetting the good news in core.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Non-core pressures drive significant gains, offsetting the good news in core.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation rebounds driven by rising electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Two-tier recovery in exports continues.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Jobs market rebounding but wage growth stays soft for now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation edged down in July, but will accelerate as mortgage rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Keeping up the inflation-fighting talk.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Ignore the consensus-matching Q2 y/y print, Philippine consumption is in recession
The RBI keeps up the inflation-fighting talk
Malaysian fuel sales take a hit from subsidy removal
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
