In one line: A relief, but production likely fell back in July.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stubborn domestic inflation means headline held steady.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
- Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
- We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Colombia’s BanRep cut rates by 50bp amid a modest economic recovery and further inflation risks.
- Chile’s BCCh was more cautious, keeping rates steady amid uncertainty driven by electricity tariffs.
- BanRep has signaled further rate cuts, contrasting with BCCh’s more data-dependent approach.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- SG property prices remain high despite multiple rounds of cooling measures from the government...
- ... As market supply is still suffering from pandemic-era shortages and robust demand.
- The risk of additional measures remains elevated since price growth is likely to remain strong.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Swiss inflation held steady in July, but this means it was still in line with the SNB’s target.
- The headline inflation rate will creep lower in the coming months, allowing for further easing.
- EZ industry ended Q2 on a good note, enough to escape recession last quarter and boost GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to be unchanged month-to-month in June, as retail sales and doctors’ strikes hit output.
- That would leave Q2 GDP up 0.6% quarter-to-quarter, just below the MPC’s new forecast.
- We think recent growth reflects stronger underlying momentum than the MPC assumes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Doves let loose, another rate cut is coming by year-end.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Supporting the MPC’s decision to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
The manufacturing malaise continues.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A cautious pause amid mixed economic signals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A cautious pause amid mixed economic signals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cautious hold, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cautious hold, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling, the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing growth and employment to accelerate as business optimism soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK