Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Headline inflation drops again in October, supporting Banxico’s cautious easing path.
- In one line: Headline inflation drops again in October, supporting Banxico’s cautious easing path.
- In one line: Export growth continues to shock to the upside.
In one line: Exports to the US rebounding; deficit with China widening.
The Philippines’ Q3 GDP was ugly all around
Still no light at the end of the tunnel in the sales data
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
- Core inflation in Mexico remains stubborn near 4%, prompting Banxico to add a hawkish tilt to its tone.
- GDP growth is weakening as industry shrinks and consumption stagnates amid tighter credit conditions.
- Further rate cuts will hinge on stable inflation, fiscal prudence and limited trade disruption.
- GDP growth in the Philippines collapsed to a post-pandemic low of 4.0% in Q3, as investment tanked…
- …More capex weakness is likely ahead, as we’ve yet to see the full impact of the ICI’s scrutiny.
- We’ve downgraded our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP forecasts to just 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively.
- China’s arithmetic fall in exports in October is mainly due to calendar effects, rather than a demand slump.
- Shipments to non-US markets dropped sharply, while exports to the US were still weak but didn’t worsen.
- Export growth is likely to slow next year, given limited capacity for the Global South to absorb rapid rises.
- Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
- The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
- The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
- In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut.
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
In one line: Q4 will be better, we think.
- In one line: Probably the boost from the autumn moon festival.
In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.
In one line: Up less in Q3 than Q2.
- In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.
- In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.
In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.
