Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, November 2025

In one line: Still very poor.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

5 December 2025 UK Monitor Collapsing jobs but stubborn inflation mean a cautious rate cut

• Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
• But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
• The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.

5 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Recent days' data a mixed bag, but we maintain a positive view

• The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
• ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
• Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.

5 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC to lower inflation forecasts after September's PCE data

• We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
• ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
• Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.

5 December 2025 China+ Monitor Weak demand keeps Chinese manufacturers' profits from recovering

• China’s industrial-profit recovery stalled in October after emerging from the trough in the summer.
• The deterioration was broad-based, but the slowdown was led primarily by weakness in manufacturing.
• Two of the three industrial-profit drivers worsened, and feeble demand failed to create more revenue.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, September 2025

Going nowhere fast.

4 December 2025 US Monitor Private payrolls probably holding up better than ADP's data suggest

• ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year. 
• Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort. 
• A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

4 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Target-range inflation in Thailand looking more and more distant

• Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
• We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
• … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.

4 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB to stand pat next week despite fall in inflation

• Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
•  It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
• The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.  

4 December 2025 UK Monitor PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos

• Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
• But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer. 
• So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 December 2025

Food inflation returns to the black in Thailand

3 December 2025 Global Monitor BoJ to focus on wages and markets, not inflation.

• US - Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone’s projections?
• EUROZONE - Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026
• UK - Delayed fiscal tightening gives the MPC little reason to cut rates more
• CHINA+ - China’s consumption promotion plan flatters to deceive
• EM ASIA - Egg on our faces for India’s Q3, but the detail is with us
• LATAM - Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October, 2025

• In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November, 2025

In one line: Too hot for a December cut, but dovish data in food and core goods.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Steady near record lows.

3 December 2025 US Monitor Is the equilibrium unemployment rate increasing?

• Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
• ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
• No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.