Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, November 2025

• In one line: The turn in rising food inflation is here.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, October 2025

• In one line: Export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, November 2025

• In one line: Strengthening to a 38-month high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 December 2025

ASEAN’s PMI strengthens to a 38-month high
Indonesian export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better
The turn in rising food inflation in Indonesia is here

UK Datanote: UK Budget, November 2025

• In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.

November 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS

• POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q3 2025

• In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct 2025

In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, October 2025

In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, September 2025

• In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 November 2025: Tokyo inflation slows slightly

Tokyo inflation slows slightly, with hints of steady wage inflation going into 2026

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 November 2025

Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines

November 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID

• TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME

1 December 2025 US Monitor Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone's projections?

• The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
• China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
• The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.

1 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January

• Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
• A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
• Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.

1 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's labour codes--alone--are no quick fix to unlock farm dominance

• India finally implemented its new labour codes after five years of dithering, reviving reform momentum…
• …But the structural employment shift from farming will still be held back by huge agricultural support.
• On the surface, the strong and market-beating Q3 GDP is beyond absurd; tread very carefully.