Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

11 July 2024 US Monitor Auto insurance likely drove an above-trend rise in the June core CPI

  • Auto insurance prices likely rebounded in June, driving a 0.3% increase in the core CPI...
  • ...But we look for chunky falls in vehicle prices and a modest increase in core-core services prices.
  • We look for a rise in jobless claims today, as auto plant and school closures overwhelm the seasonals.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

11 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Recovery prospects amid economic challenges and policy shifts

  • Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
  • Mexico — Navigating turbulence
  • Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwanese trade growth ends Q2 with a resounding bang

  • Taiwan’s trade performance in June blew the consensus out of the water… 
  • …As export and import growth surprised hugely to the upside, thanks to the recovery in electronics.
  • The Philippines’ trade deficit has been growing since the start of Q2; exports should pick up soon.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 July 2024 China+ Monitor China's subdued consumer inflation reflects tepid demand and sentiment

  • China’s consumer inflation remained soft in June, as the 618 e-commerce event proved a damp squib.
  • Pork inflation is reviving, though most other food prices are still falling.
  • Headline producer price deflation eased in June, but largely thanks to international commodity inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor The curious case of the vanishing EZ monetary policy transmission

  • EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism. 
  • The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC. 
  • Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2024 UK Monitor Insolvencies and liquidations should fall as GDP grows

  • Company insolvencies surged to a record high in 2023, but that exaggerates corporate distress.
  • The liquidation rate remains far from its peak and rose mainly due to catch-up after a hiatus in 2020. 
  • We expect insolvencies to fall as GDP growth rebounds and the MPC begins cutting Bank Rate.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June, 2024

  • In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June, 2024

  • In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US NFIB Survey, June

A slight improvement from a weak base, but challenges remain.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2024

  • In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 July 2024

How long will the bounce in Indonesian sales last with confidence fading?
Philippine sales growth continues to fluctuate wildly around zero

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 July 2024 Global Monitor A fragmented parliament in France; what happens next?

  • US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
  • EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
  • UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
  • CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
  • EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

10 July 2024 US Monitor Powell stays quiet on rate cut timing, but emphasizes labor market risks

  • Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
  • The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
  • The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico and Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects

  • Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
  • Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
  • …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor A bumpy Q2 for consumers in Indonesia and the Philippines

  • Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
  • …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
  • Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor House prices in the Eurozone will fare better than previously thought

  • The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
  • ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates. 
  • We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 July 2024 UK Monitor CPI preview: services inflation likely to outstrip MPC's forecast

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
  • Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 July 2024 US Monitor Will the June jobs data trigger dovish testimony from Chair Powell today?

  • Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
  • Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
  • NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.  

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's inflation undershot in June; BCCh to continue cautious rate cuts

  • Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
  • Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
  • Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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