Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

19 June 2024 Global Monitor Another BoE hold but SNB likely to cut again

  • US - The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast
  • EUROZONE - Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing
  • UK - MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut
  • CHINA+ - BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July
  • EM ASIA - Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

19 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor A reprieve for Singapore's long-suffering semiconductor sector

  • It’s not often that a growth figure of -0.1% brings joy, but it did in the case of Singapore’s May exports...
  • ...We found much to celebrate, as semiconductor exports are finally showing signs of life.
  • We still expect the recovery in exports to be gradual but now see stronger signs of its likely durability.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 June 2024 China+ Monitor Government-bond issuance powers credit creation; money growth slows

  • China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
  • Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
  • May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation will hit 2% soon, but the core will stay sticky

  • Inflation in the Eurozone was uncomfortably hot in May, but 2% over the summer is still a good bet. 
  • Surveys signal downward risks for services inflation, but sports events are upside risks over the summer. 
  • We think the ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in September, December and March.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 June 2024 UK Monitor Short-term house price stagnation, medium-term inflation

  • House-price inflation has slowed as rising mortgage interest rates have deterred buyers…
  • …But the typical two-year mortgage rate will drop 50bp by year-end if market pricing of rate cuts is right.
  • We expect house prices to regain momentum and rise 3% year-over-year in December 2024.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 June 2024 US Monitor Homebase data consistent with the smallest rise in payrolls since October

  • Our Homebase model points to a mere 125K rise in private payrolls in June, the least since October.
  • Retail sales likely recovered in May from a subpar April, but the trend looks less robust.
  • Industrial production likely picked up in May; surveys have nudged up and hours worked have risen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

18 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds

  • Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
  • The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
  • Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's targeted stimulus good enough for now; expect only tweaks

  • China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
  • Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
  • Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another wage figure points to the ECB on hold in July

  • The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1… 
  • ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany. 
  • Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2024 UK Monitor Taxes will rise but sterling will do just fine

  • The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
  • We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
  • We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 June 2024: China activity boosted by equipment upgrades

China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June Prelim

A further slowdown in consumption growth seems increasingly likely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May

  • In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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