Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May

  •  In one line: Cautious consumers keep private car sales falling.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Labour Cash Earnings, Japan, April

In one line:  Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

EM Asia Datawrap: 5 June 2024

  • In one line: Vehicle sales fail to offset retail weakness in Singapore.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, May

  • In one line: Goods inflation U-turns, while services inflation remains sticky.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2024 US Monitor Private payrolls likely rose in May at the slowest pace since October

  • The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
  • Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
  • We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 June 2024 LatAm Monitor MXN steadies, but risks remain; Brazil's industry still under strain

  • The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
  • A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
  • The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Stickiness of Taiwanese CPI over 2% raises risk of further tightening

  • Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
  • …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
  • A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's service sector recovery is broadening, except for property

  • The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
  • Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
  • Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB gets a cut over the line, and we'll get another in September

  • The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely. 
  • We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March. 
  • For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2024 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.2% month-to-month in April

  • We think GDP fell 0.2% month-to-month in April, as wet weather reduced consumer spending.
  • We still expect 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q2, as retail sales should bounce back in May…
  • ...Business surveys, moreover, suggest output growth remains robust.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment Report, May

ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May 2024

  • In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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