Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to be unchanged month-to-month in October.
- The bulk of evidence points to employment growth stabilising as the hit from payroll-tax hikes fades.
- Private pay growth should slow further, encouraging MPC doves that they can cut rates in December.
- The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
- …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
- …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.
- High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
- The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
- Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.
- India’s real GST collection growth in October was flat, at best, showing no post-cut pop in spending.
- Recovering Chinese demand is helping to keep Indonesian export growth lofty, but big risks linger.
- We have raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.1%, in light of the firm October reads.
- The Xi–Trump meeting in Korea marked a watershed shift in negotiating power between the US and China.
- The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased, similar to the NBS, on weak demand both at home and abroad.
- China is betting on powering growth by both expanding consumption and maintaining its export prowess.
- Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range.
- We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise.
- Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.
- The insolvency rate has plateaued above pre-pandemic levels but is unthreatening.
- We see little indication that higher insolvency rates will lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
- Insolvency numbers will fall as businesses adjust to higher interest rates and GDP growth holds firm.
In one line: In line with our view of Swiss economic weakness.
- In one line: In line with our view of Swiss economic weakness.
- In one line: Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast to just over 3%.
- In one line: A deceptively quiet end to Q3 for trade.
A deceptively quiet end to Q3 for Indonesian trade
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast to just over 3%
In one line: Down, but the SNB will ignore it.
- In one line: Down, but the SNB will ignore it.
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
- In one line: Softer, but still beating expectations.
- In one line: ‘Others’ component goes from friend to foe; underlying growth is showing more stability.
In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.
