Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
- Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
- Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations.
- We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation.
- EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Domestic demand fades in August, with fiscal policy slow to gain traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond surge props up broad credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Held down by falling energy inflation; the core firmed.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
- Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
- Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.
Samuel TombsUS
- The COPOM has a tough rate decision amid rising inflation expectations, and elevated policy risk.
- Mixed economic data highlight resilient services growth, but the industrial recovery remains fragile.
- New BCB leadership under Gabriel Galípolo brings uncertainty to future policy and inflation-targeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We’re keeping to our base case that the first cut from the RBI could come as soon as next month…
- …The bounce in CPI is unlikely to be as bad as the MPC feared, with food pressures truly subsiding.
- Headline IP growth looks stable on the surface, but momentum has clearly faded in recent months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Recent BoJ policymaker statements signal intent to keep raising rates if warranted by inflation.
- The carry trade appears to have largely unwound, but lower oil prices could slow the pace of rate hikes.
- Revised Q2 GDP growth was partly bolstered by short-term factors; Q3 growth is likely to slow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- One more ECB rate cut this year is a good baseline, but the probability of two has increased.
- Surveys point to downside risks for core inflation in France, but we still look for a rebound in Q4.
- The misery in EZ manufacturing continued at the start of Q3, despite a boost from Ireland.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Better anchored inflation expectations have helped deliver a more benign disinflation than feared.
- But the MPC should retain some caution as long-run household inflation expectations are a little elevated...
- …satisfaction in the BoE remains low and households are more attentive to inflation than before Covid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: House price inflation accelerates immediately after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: High energy costs will keep the trade deficit wide for the foreseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
