Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
- A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
- Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
- The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.
- GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
- …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
- We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.
- Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
- The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
- The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...
- …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR
A TENSE MONTH OF EU-US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIES AHEAD...
- ...WE STILL SEE UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GROWTH
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
