Wait for the core PCE before rushing to inflation judgment
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The BoK keeps rates unchanged, hinting at easing
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
BoK keeps policy rate on hold, hinting at easing
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Unsustainable gains in used auto prices, airline fares, and rents explain the solid December core CPI…
- …But core PCE matters much more to the Fed, and it likely rose by much less than the core CPI.
- Further downward pressure on core PPI inflation requires falling margins, and/or slower wage growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation pressures in Brazil remained under control at the end of 2023, as domestic demand eased.
- Favourable inertia effects and the BRL’s performance in recent quarters will push inflation down in H1.
- Further good news on the inflation story in Colombia; the COP’s rebound last year will be a drag in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian retail sales growth increased to 4.4% in November, from 3.9% in October...
- ...Supported by friendlier base effects and seasonal spending, which offset moderating price growth.
- We expect retail sales growth to stabilise around 5-to-6% this year, as employment growth wanes.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Italian industrial output fell in November, defying the otherwise decent trail of hard data for Q4.
- We are sticking to our call for a 0.2% slide in GDP, setting up a weak base for this year.
- Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will rebound this year, but the recovery will be gradual and tepid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but production likely fell over Q4 as a whole.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's wages are hit by slumping bonuses
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Indonesian sales growth is barely keeping its head above water
A welcome widening of the Philippines’ trade deficit in November
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The core CPI likely rose by an unthreatening 0.2% in December, but the net risk is to the upside.
- Rents, airline fares, and used auto prices all pose threats to our forecast for the core.
- The big picture, though, is that core inflation is slowing across most core goods and services.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — At an all-time high, and 2024 looks solid
- Mexico — Improving, but elections could bring noise
- Chile — Rally to continue after political risk eases
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We look for a massive downward surprise in India’s December CPI, as onion prices have collapsed.
- Unofficial core inflation likely softened further too, falling below 4% for the first time since end-2019.
- Indonesian retail sales growth slowed unexpectedly in November; sub-zero prints are around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia