Pantheon Publications

9 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor Did Net Exports Save the Day for Germany in Q4? Probably

• German manufacturing remained subdued in Q4, but net trade in goods likely soared.
• Retail sales in the euro area fell midway through Q4, due principally to weakness in Germany.
• Investor sentiment continues to signal upside risk for the EZ composite PMI at the start of 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 January 2024 UK Monitor GDP Likely Rebounded in November, Weakening the Case for Swift Rate Cuts

• Business surveys, employment and consumer borrowing data imply GDP is still on a rising trend.
• Output will rebound in many weather-sensitive sectors in November, after October’s bout of heavy rainfall.
• The impact of the fall in Covid booster jabs on health output will be largely offset by a hiatus in strike action.

Samuel TombsUK

Global Datanote: Inflation, Chile, December, 2023

• In one line: Disinflation is on track.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, December, 2023

• In one line: Disinflation is on track.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: ESI/Retail Sales, EZ, Dec/Nov 2023

In one line: Services sentiment pulled up the ESI at the end of 2023; Retail sales were still going nowhere in November. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, January 2024

In one line: Up again, pointing to upside for the PMI. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders & Trade, Germany, November 2023

In one line: Factory orders remain depressed; net trade in goods soared in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 JANUARY 2024: Reserves rise thanks to narrowing yield gap

China's foreign reserves rise, thanks to a narrowing yield gap

Duncan WrigleyChina+

UK Datanote: U.K. Report on Jobs Survey, December 2023

• In one line: Still supporting the case for rate cuts, but wage growth likely will remain stronger than it implies.

Samuel TombsUK

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, December 2023

Behind the headline, the trend in job growth is slowing, with more softening to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, December

Too soon to conclude that downward trend is in place.

US

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: All due to base effects in energy; the downtrend in the core remains intact.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: All due to base effects in energy; the downtrend in the core remains intact.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, November 2023

In one line: Ouch. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 January 2024

India’s PMIs for Q4, overall, point to sub-6% GDP growth
Singaporean consumer demand looks subdued, despite the November jump in sales growth
Deflation in Thailand deepens, but December should be the low
Philippine inflation returns to the target range, finally

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 JANUARY 2024

Japan's Services PMI Reports Higher Domestic Demand in December

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 January 2024 US Monitor Job Growth is Slowing, but the Fed's Main Interest is Inflation

• The labor market is weaker than the headline December jobs numbers, but it’s hardly terrible.
• Either way, the Fed’s policy decisions will be driven more by the inflation numbers than the jobs data.
• The soft December ISM services survey is not definitive, but a repeat in January would get our attention.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 January 2024 LatAm Monitor Growth Still Slowing, Helping to Bring Inflation Down Further

• LatAm economic activity is under pressure, helping to bring inflation back under control.
• Still-tight financial conditions are hurting key sectors, but the economic outlook will improve soon.
• Rate cuts will help to revive activity, but increased political and geopolitical uncertainty is a threat.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 January 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Downward CPI Surprises in ASEAN, Paving the Way for H1 Rate Cuts

• Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
• Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
• Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 January 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Services Survey Reports Higher Domestic Demand

• Japan’s services sector is expanding at a faster pace; the PMI reports more domestic customers.
• The downturn in manufacturing intensified on demand uncertainty, both at home and abroad.
• The BoJ is likely to exit its negative rate policy in Q2, even if the economic backdrop does not warrant it.

Duncan WrigleyChina+