Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, December

Korean exports rise sharply on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, December

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 JANUARY 2024

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Korea’s manufacturing activities steady in December

Korean export growth accelerates on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, December

In one line: The H2 rise in food inflation is finally over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, December

In one line: Entering 2024 with negative momentum.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 January 2024

Jump in Singaporean GDP growth in Q4 was powered by a rebound in manufacturing
ASEAN entered 2024 with negative momentum
The H2 rise in Indonesian food inflation is finally over

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 January 2024 UK Monitor Households' Saving Rate Won't Rise Further in 2024; Spending to Recover

The economy had no momentum last year, partly because households’ saving ratio increased sharply...
...But many people have now replenished their savings; others benefited in Q4 from a jump in financial wealth.
A revival in mortgage lending in 2024 will lower the saving ratio, ensuring spending rises more quickly than RHDI.

Samuel TombsUK

3 January 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Strong Finish to 2023 for Singapore, But Is It Sustainable?

Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor No Q4 Recovery in Eurozone Industry, but Q1 Should Be Better

EZ manufacturing remained in recession in Q4, but global data point to an improvement in Q1.
The slowdown in narrow money growth is easing, adding to upside risks for the composite PMI in Q1.
Private sector lending growth slowed midway through Q4; it will slow further in H1 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 January 2024 US Monitor ISM Manufacturing Probably Fell in December

The December ISM manufacturing index likely fell, leaving it broadly in line with the cycle low…
…But falling interest rates likely will lift capital spending and manufacturing activity in 2024.
The Fed minutes are unlikely to reveal anything new, but we continue to expect rate cuts as early as March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

3 January 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese Manufacturing Activity Continues to Flounder

December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 January 2024 US Monitor Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024

The November PCE report highlights the significant downside risk to the Fed’s inflation forecast.
The Fed eventually will have little choice to ease by more than their current forecast of 75bp this year.
Housing and manufacturing activity are near a floor, but any recovery will be slow going.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Property Sector is Barely Making Progress

Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March

Markets think the ECB will cut rates in March, as do we; inflation below 2% by February should do it.
Energy prices are the key wildcard for headline inflation in Q1; so far the trend looks benign.
In the core, non-energy goods inflation is about to collapse, but services inflation is still sticky.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 January 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base

India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 January 2024 UK Monitor Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts

The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.