Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- We are raising our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%, after August’s advance indicators...
- ...But advance GDP estimates missed the last three major downturns; payrolls are a better gauge.
- Residual seasonality depresses continuing claims in September; the labor market is still weakening.
- Brazil’s inflation is rising modestly in September, reinforcing BCB’s cautious stance.
- BCB’s report highlighted sticky services inflation, a positive output gap, and delayed rate normalisation.
- Banxico continues its cautious easing as inflation softens, but fragile growth and external risks persist.
- Taiwan's retail sales growth finally rebounded, to +0.4% in August, after months of constant falls.
- This was supported by a milder drop in auto sales, which could recover if a US trade deal is agreed.
- All told, still-weak consumption reflects flat wages,a soft property market and slumping tourism.
- The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.0% yesterday, where we now think it will stay until 2027.
- The Bank said it was keeping its options open, but in our view the Chairman closed the door to more cuts.
- The next move in Swiss rates will be upward, despite inflation likely falling to year-end and downside risks.
- Consumers’ confidence fell in September but remains higher than the economic fundamentals would imply.
- Optimism among younger demographics is supporting consumers’ confidence.
- The November Budget and inflation averaging 3.3% over the coming year represent risks to sentiment.
In one line: Eine Enttäuschung!
In one line: Manufacturing sector gloom amid tariff weight and political risks
Japan's flash PMIs reveal divergence between weakening manufacturing sector and resilient services activity
Thai front-running to the US is now reversing
- The Chicago Fed’s new unemployment tracker relies on several inputs with a poor track records.
- The weights of the inputs are currently unclear; other—useful—indicators have been overlooked too.
- The 20.5% leap in new home sales in August looks implausible to us, and the outlook remains dim.
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices dropped by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July.
- Forward-looking indicators for the housing market suggest that activity will remain muted in H2.
- The November Budget represents a wild card for house prices, as rumours of property-tax hikes swirl.
- US - FOMC likely to ease a further 50bp this year, but expect close votes
- EUROZONE - We’re lifting our EURUSD forecast, but not enough for a rate cut
- UK - Week in review: Sticky inflation and questionable slack
- CHINA+ - Xi-Trump call: Trust rebuilding, finer TikTok details still being ironed out
- EM ASIA - Three consecutive surprises from BI and we expect another in October
- LATAM - Copom holds Selic but normalisation path emerging; Argentina in trouble
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: That’s more like it, but upturn in manufacturing is on borrowed time.
In one line: That’s more like it, but upturn in manufacturing is on borrowed time.
In one line: Political brinkmanship comes at a cost.
In one line: Political brinkmanship comes at a cost.
