Pantheon Publications

3 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Net trade and consumption push Taiwan's Q3 GDP even higher

• Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
• More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
• India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.

3 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor November HICP seals the deal for the ECB to hold rates this month

• EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
• Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
• Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.

3 December 2025 UK Monitor Rebounding manufacturing activity to drive GDP growth in October

• We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
• Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
• Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, November 2025

Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, November 2025

• In one line: Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.

PM Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, November

In one line: China’s industrial profit recovery stalled as growth driver weaken in October

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, November

In one line: Bank of Korea stand pats on better growth prospects, higher inflation trend due to the weak won

China+ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Japan, November

In one line: Japan’s services and manufacturers face worsening inflation dynamics.

PM Datanote: 20 Day Export, Korea, November

In one line: Korea’s WDA 20 day export growth moderates in November despite headline rebound.

PM Datanote: National CPI, October, Japan

In one line: Japan’s inflation and currency backdrop favours policy normalisation, but politics cloud a near-term BoJ hike.

PM Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, November

In one line: China holds fire on LPR cuts amid banking NIM compression

PM Datanote: Activity Data, China, October

In one line: China's October activity data show broad-based weakness, despite some positivity on the inflation and profits fronts

PM Datanote: Money & Credit, China, October

In one line: China credit growth softens further in October, pointing to ongoing real economy weakness.

PM Datanote: CPI, China, October

In one line: China’s CPI turns positive in October on stronger-than-expected festive demand

PM Datanote: PPI, China, October

In one line: China’s PPI deflation continues to ease in October, with pockets of good news in involuted industries.

PM Datanote: Current Account Balance, China, Q3 (Preliminary)

In one line: China’s current account surplus widens in Q3 compared to a year ago on record goods exports.

PM Datanote: FX Reserves, China, October

In one line: China’s October FX reserves rise unexpectedly on equity inflows despite dollar strength 

PM Datanote: Exports, China, October

In one line: China’s export reversal led by weaker shipments to non-US markets, notably the EU. 

PM Datanote: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, China, October

In one line: China’s RatingDog PMI slips as export orders fall sharply in October amid renewed US trade tensions

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, October 2025

• In one line: Made to look much worse by Diwali distortions.