Pantheon Publications

7 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ consumption growth decent in Q3; German industry underwhelms

•  EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2…. 
• ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4. 
• Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.

7 November 2025 UK Monitor We reiterate our call for a cut in December then rates on hold

• The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
• Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
• ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, October 2025

• In one line: The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in sentiment continues.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, September 2025

In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2025

Local private demand let the Indonesia economy down in Q3
The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in ASEAN manufacturing sentiment continues
Outright Thai deflation still has a number of months left
Softer food and firmer housing & utilities inflation in the Philippines offset each other

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, September 2025

In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 November 2025: RatingDog PMI points to efficiency gains

Efficiency gains help profits but hurt labour demand

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, September, 2025

• In one line: Under pressure, but conditions likely will improve in Q1.

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, October 2025

• In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.

6 November 2025 US Monitor Exports are struggling, despite the weaker dollar

• Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
• Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
• Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.

6 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance with Andean currencies appreciating despite political noise

• Brazilian Real —  Slips modestly on global headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
• Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution

6 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The real stories behind another 5% GDP print for Indonesia in Q3

• GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
• …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
• Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.

6 November 2025 China+ Monitor China's falling saving rate not enough to revamp growth model

• China’s household saving rate has fallen, implying greater readiness for consumption spending...
• ...But not by enough to make up for the slump in residential sales since 2019; no wonder demand is soft.
• The October RatingDog services PMI reports efficiency gains; good for profits, but bad for jobs short term.

6 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Surveys suggest German industry is doing fine, but is it?

• German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat. 
• Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge. 
• Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.

6 November 2025 UK Monitor Only 21 sleeps to go until the Budget, but firms brush off worries

• We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
• The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
• Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.

October 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH

• …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, October 2025

• In one line: Tariff-led jump in goods inflation likely to be temporary.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, October 2025

Tariff-led jump goods inflation likely to be temporary.

5 November 2025 Global Monitor The MPC will stand pat this week, but we now see a cut in December

• US - Indicators of consumers’ spending are starting to flash amber
• EUROZONE - The ECB keeps rates steady as inflation and GDP look resilient
• UK - MPC preview: holding Bank Rate steady but signalling cuts
• CHINA+ - Xi-Trump meet-up: temporary trade truce tilted in China’s favour
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s GDP growth still strong, but we think it’s finally peaked
• LATAM - BCCh holds rates as political noise grows; Mexico’s GDP falls in Q3

5 November 2025 US Monitor ADP's data are a lousy guide to both initial and final payrolls

• The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
• The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS. 
• The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.