Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: exports hold up ahead of row with China
Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for India
Malaysia’s recent inflation spike could be over
- Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
- ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
- The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.
- Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
- Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
- Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.
- India’s PMIs are still broadly losing steam heading into 2026, pointing to ‘just’ 6.4% Q4 GDP growth…
- …The future output indices in both PMIs are tanking, pouring cold water over a mid-2026 recovery.
- Malaysian inflation eased to 1.3% in October after months of rise s; we think food inflation will return.
- Japan’s PM Takaichi revealed a mega-stimulus plan to ease the impact of inflation and boost growth.
- Inflation data support a December hike, but domestic politics and geopolitics complicate the timing…
- …Still, extreme JPY weakness may ultimately force the BoJ to hike, if its intervention impact proves short-lived.
- The tiny fall in the EZ composite PMI in November still leaves it pointing to stronger GDP growth in Q4.
- The PMIs also indicate rising price pressures, signalling little need for another ECB cut this year.
- EZ negotiated wage growth dropped in Q3, but this is not the start of a new trend.
- The bar to data preventing a December MPC rate cut is now very high, in our view…
- …But we expect an extended pause after a December cut, with inflation and growth likely to hold up.
- The Budget will likely be less disinflationary and less credible after Ms. Reeves ditched an income-tax hike.
Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.
- In one line: Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.
Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.
In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.
- In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.
- In one line: Manufacturing output to remain weak in Q4.
- In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.
- In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.
In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.
December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.
- The pick-up in payrolls was a by-product of the most generous September seasonal on record...
- ...The chances of a downward revision are very high; October’s report will be substantially weaker too.
- The rise in the unemployment rate is being fuelled by new entrants and layoffs; expect more to come in Q4.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
