Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.
- In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.
In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.
December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.
- The pick-up in payrolls was a by-product of the most generous September seasonal on record...
- ...The chances of a downward revision are very high; October’s report will be substantially weaker too.
- The rise in the unemployment rate is being fuelled by new entrants and layoffs; expect more to come in Q4.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
- The Government’s U-turn on hiking income tax shows that the political situation is deteriorating…
- ...So, we raise our forecast for the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.65%, and the 30-year at 5.45%.
- Risks to yields are upward as a potential Labour Party leadership challenge increases the pressure to spend.
In one line: Inflation to stay above 2% in Q4.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
The AI tide is finally lifting Malaysian exports
Dip in mortgage rates providing only a small tailwind.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- The BLS’ new data calendar means today’s employment report is make-or-break for a December easing.
- The GDPNow model is running a bit too hot; GDP growth in Q3 of about 31/2% seems more likely.
- October’s jump in WARN filings is due to new laws in Washington state; the trend is rising moderately.
- Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
- Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
- Colombia — Risks rising ahead of 2026 election
- BI stood pat yesterday, as widely expected; we see one final cut in December and RRR easing in 2026.
- Singaporean export growth leapt unexpectedly in October, but leading indicators remain very soft.
- Malaysian exports are finally benefiting from the AI boom, as they surged by 15.7% in October.
- China’s residential property market is weakening again, in the absence of robust new policy support.
- Broad inventory needs another 18 months to bottom out, but even that depends on sentiment stabilising.
- A modest rise in land sales this year, albeit from a very low base, is a flickering ray of light.
- EZ inflation edged down in October, but we still see a near-term rebound to 2.2%, before a fall in January.
- Refining margins are rising, boosting energy inflation, but the trend is still dovish overall.
- Core inflation is set for a small further rise in the near term, before a steady decline over H1 2026.
- October headline inflation slowing in line with the MPC’s call keeps a December rate cut nailed on.
- We think erratic factors contributed to the decline in services inflation, and it will partly rebound.
- So, we forecast that CPI inflation will hold at 3.6% in November and 3.7% in December.
- US - How much is AI contributing to the labor market slowdown?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy shrinks more than expected in Q3; Q4 will be better
- UK - GDP headline means a rate cut, but the underlying picture is better
- CHINA+ - China’s logistics ambitions: from SF Express to the Northeast Passage
- EM ASIA - Inventories make Thailand’s Q3 GDP look worse than it actually was
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile’s first round fragmented
