In one line: Slight uptick in China's industrial profits driven by better performing upstream sectors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China lowered interest rates and revealed plans to enhance government finances; Korea early trade data propelled by AI-chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Strong AI-driven exports propel Korea’s early July trade figures
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s loan prime rates and short-term rates were unexpectedly lowered in July; plans revealed to revive local government finances
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The low personal saving rate stems from low unemployment and recent rapid growth in asset prices.
- The saving rate will likely rise over the next year as unemployment rises and stock price growth slows.
- Consumer confidence probably ticked up in July, but from a level consistent with soft consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s current account deficit is widening, driven by both domestic factors and global headwinds.
- Mexico’s trade balance has deteriorated, hit by fewer oil exports and ongoing manufacturing weakness.
- Both nations must address economic uncertainties; tight financial conditions will keep a lid on imports.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ECB’s CES suggests young people’s inflation expectations have increased since the pandemic…
- …This, in turn, implies that tail-risks for inflation have shifted to the upside, and above 2%.
- Relative inflation expectations for women and low-income workers seem correlated with wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Increased risk appetite and approaching rate cuts led firms to raise finance for the third month in four.
- Consumers continue to plough money into ISAs to take advantage of good deposit rates.
- But we doubt households will save more, as they are already building up real liquid assets at a decent clip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
EZ LEADING INDICATORS ARE THROWING OFF MIXED SIGNALS
- ...WHICH ONES SHOULD YOU TRUST?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- June's muted core PCE deflator likely will be followed by sustained benign readings.
- Consumption will slow further, as the labor market weakens and the savings rate creeps up.
- July's regional Fed services surveys also support the case for a rapid easing of monetary policy.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- LatAm policymakers face complex challenges due to inflation, currency volatility and policy uncertainty.
- Brazil will likely hold rates, as the currency sell-off and fiscal concerns dampen easing expectations.
- The central banks in the Andes will continue to cut rates, on the back of stable inflation and poor growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The output price sub-indices of India’s July PMIs spike d, but it would be premature to raise a red flag.
- Indonesia’s July CPI should see inflation falling below the 2.5% target, on further food disinflation.
- We look for a small drop in ASEAN’s July PMI, as a couple of the big exporters look overstretched.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ will probably placate currency investors by cutting back bond-buying on Wednesday...
- ...But will likely stay put on the policy rate, in order to prop up growth and foster demand-pull inflation.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged down in July, though core inflation excluding fresh food inched up.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Brace for the Q2 GDP data and July inflation figures, after a busy week for surveys last week.
- EZ headline inflation likely was unchanged in July, but we think core inflation dipped further.
- Italy’s first survey data for July were not as downbeat as those for France and Germany.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth continues to outperform consensus estimates and MPC projections.
- Services inflation remains elevated and is overshooting forecasts by a widening margin.
- We think the MPC will wait and cut Bank Rate in September, but it is a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Edging down, in line with deteriorating overall business sentiment in France and Germany
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
