In one line: Stable, but unemployment fears are creeping higher.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A big bounce in net goods trade will help Thailand's Q2 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
HOUSE PRICES DEFY HIGH INTEREST RATES...
- ...WE EXPECT 4% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: CBI orders and prices fall in July, but both should rebound in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
The PBoC's surprise MLF rate cut rams home China's re-orientation towards short-term growth support; fiscal policy tweaks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Still pointing to an improvement in growth, in contrast to the business surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Hit to Q2 GDP growth from net trade probably offset by inventories and investment.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Core inflation remains under control, giving Banxico room for manoeuvre, despite the ugly headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation overshot expectations, driven by transportation and housing costs.
- Brazil’s currency sell-off increases inflation risks, complicating COPOM’s monetary policy decisions.
- Mexico’s headline inflation jumped in mid-July, due largely to a non-core inflation spike; core is subdued.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Plunging French and German business confidence raises the probability of a rate cut in September…
- …but we’re sceptical whether these data should be trusted as reliable leading indicators for Q3 GDP.
- Our index of the credit impulse, M1 growth and credit standards points to stronger EZ GDP growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- The MPC said its decision depends on GDP, services inflation and wages; all have exceeded its forecasts.
- It will be a hawkish cut if rate-setters do go ahead, with their guidance likely cautious about future easing.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK