- The summary document from China’s Third Plenum hints at further short-term growth support.
- The reform strategy prioritizes manufacturing and high-tech development.
- But bold reforms to fill the demand hole left by the tanking property sector seem unlikely.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- This week sees a raft of business surveys for July; we expect increases across the board.
- Political uncertainty in France is a threat, but the unclear outcome of the elections removes tail risks...
- ...German industrial surveys were too weak in June, given early signs from hard data; they will rebound.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Cooler weather in June led to a 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes.
- We think the ONS data exaggerate the drop in retail sales because surveys suggest a stronger reading.
- The new government will likely borrow £10B-to-£20B a year more and raise taxes to fund more spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: "September is wide open”, apparently.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: "September is wide open”, apparently.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Claims boosted by auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, but the underlying trend is rising.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Construction fell back in Q2, after a decent Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Base effects dominate Malaysian trade figures in June
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Japanese headline exports continue to rise, despite auto shipment disruptions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A strong Q2 for manufacturing, but major headwinds persist.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tentative signs of recovery in the multi-family sector, but single-family starts look set to fall further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Services is sticky as ever, and it won’t drop meaningfully anytime soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Equipment investment likely leapt by about 7% in Q2, driven by surging transport and computer spending...
- ...But these components are volatile; high borrowing costs will weigh on capex unrelated to the AI boom.
- The jump in jobless claims was due to auto plant closures and Hurricane Beryl, but the trend is rising too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Latin American recovery faces headwinds as the US presidential election looms large on the horizon.
- Mr. Trump’s potential return to power threatens to disrupt LatAm economies and trade relations.
- Mexico is the most directly exposed, and Brazil the least vulnerable, to a potential Trump presidency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
