Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

15 July 2024 UK Monitor GDP will be boosted by strong real income and falling saving

  • We raise our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2025 to 1.6%, from 1.4% previously.
  • Strong GDP growth so far this year suggests that the drag from interest rate hikes is fading.
  • A 3.2% rise in household real income in 2024 will power GDP gains of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision

  • In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision

  • In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: UK GDP May 2024

  • In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, June 2026

In one line: Falling, and survey data point to further declines ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, July

The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 July 2024 BoK policy decision

The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Inflation outlook uncertainty keeps the BNM on hold

  • BNM held its policy rate this month, as it waits to see the impact of the diesel-subsidy removal…
  • …A relatively strong growth outlook is providing it with the bandwidth for a continued pause.
  • Malaysian GDP growth likely improved to 4.8% year-over-year in Q2, from 4.2% in Q1.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: CPI, Brazil, June, 2024

  • In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, June, 2024

  • In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 July 2024 US Monitor June CPI data bolster the case for multiple Fed easings this year

  • Plunging airline fares flattered June’s tiny rise in the core CPI, but most services prices were subdued too.
  • CPI data and our PPI forecasts map to a 0.17% rise in the core PCE deflator, but our estimate will shift today.
  • The Michigan consumer sentiment index probably rose slightly in July, lifted by a surging stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Underlying inflation in Brazil subdued, despite solid consumption

  • Brazil’s underlying inflation picture remains in check, but political and economic risks are intensifying.
  • BCB faces a complex scenario as the labour market and private consumption appear resilient, for now.
  • Retail sales surged in May despite economic headwinds, beating expectations.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 July 2024 China+ Monitor BoK edges towards rate cuts, though export vigour reduces the urgency

  • The BoK held fast on the policy rate yesterday but shifted the focus to rate cuts.
  • Disinflation should continue in H2, despite the risks from higher import costs and the weak KRW.
  • Chip exports will likely drive GDP growth enough for the BoK to delay its first rate cut until October.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Revising up our Q2 GDP growth call for Italy, marginally

  • Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth… 
  • ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%. 
  • Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2024 UK Monitor GDP growth will exceed the MPC's forecasts, again, in Q2

  • Output rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, putting GDP 1.5% higher than at the start of the year.
  • We raise our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% quarter-to-quarter and see upside risk.
  • Yesterday’s release supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut Bank Rate.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, May

In one line: Decent, but not enough to prevent a Q2 decline. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+Datanote: PPI, China, June

China’s producer deflation persistent, despite misleading improvement in headline

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 July 2024

Chinese Inflation is Cooling, Thanks to an Uneven Recovery

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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