- Chair Powell sounds more optimistic on inflation, but wants to see no further rise in unemployment.
- We expect initial claims above the consensus for the fifth time in six weeks; summer data will be volatile.
- The June ISM services survey will probably provide further signs of disinflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Manufacturing continues to recover solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI continued to outpace the official index in June…
- …reflecting better performance among light industries and high-tech than heavy industries.
- The construction index was hit by extreme weather conditions, masking any stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- GDP growth in Vietnam leapt to 6.9% in Q2, easily beating all expectations; we now see 6.5% for 2024.
- That said, industry and services remain historically sub-par, and industry is likely to face a tougher H2.
- The tourism recovery is still going strong, helping services, but the credit data are raising red flags.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
- We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
- High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
- Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
- Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
- German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money and credit data for May suggest consumption and investment will drive brisk GDP growth.
- Consumers’ reducing the amount they save to pre-Covid norms suggests they are willing to spend.
- Firms raised £10.4B of external finance in the past three months, above the £7.2B 2015-to-19 average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still stagnating, no recovery in sight.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline and core inflation fell in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Food disinflation intensifies, returning the headline back to BI’s target.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Mixed picture for China's manufacturers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Mixed picture for China's manufacturers
Japanese and Korean firms hit by mounting import costs
Korean exports lifted by AI-chip demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
