Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, May 2024

  • In one line: Manufacturing growth leaps and feeds through to modest price inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 June 2024 US Monitor April quits rate likely still pointing to a further slowdown in wage growth

  • The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
  • Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over. 
  • The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

4 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

  • Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
  • Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
  • The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's manufacturing output exceeding demand

  • China’s May manufacturing PMIs sent mixed signals, reflecting the uneven recovery.
  • Production continues to power ahead of demand, which 60% of manufacturers view as “insufficient”.
  • Stimulus funds have yet to boost construction, but steelmakers are optimistic about the year ahead.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
  • How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
  • We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 June 2024 UK Monitor Labour market preview: Another strong wage increase

  • We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
  • We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
  • Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

May 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

LATER RATE CUTS SLOW THE HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY...

  • ...WE EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE ONLY 3% IN 2024

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

May 2024 - UK Chartbook

PERSISTENCE PERSISTS...

  • ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN AUGUST, THEN ONCE A QUARTER

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

May 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...

  • ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

May 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...

  • …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

May 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET

  • …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

May 2024 - China+ Chartbook

  • - CHINA GETS SERIOUS ABOUT PROPERTY SECTOR SUPPORT
  • - BOJ CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
  • - BOK LIKELY TO DELAY RATE RISE AMID EXPORT BOOM

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 June 2024: Caixin PMI rises; Korean PMI hits two-year high

China's Caixin PMI rises, thanks to robust consumer goods output

Korean manufacturing PMI hits a two-year high

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence