- In one line: A modest cut as inflation risks have tilted to the upside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Only modest improvement in China's headline exports; imports rise in anticipation of stimulus impact; Japanese broad wages yet to turn around
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A very quiet start to the year for the Philippine economy, especially in private domestic demand
Malaysian retail sales growth rises in March, despite a drop in wholesale growth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil — Headwinds amid shifting US rate outlook
- Mexico — Facing challenges amid elevated interest rates
- Chile — Improved outlook, but inflation risks linger
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Jobless claims likely will drop this week, but the sudden spike week is a warning sign of trouble ahead.
- Consumers’ confidence likely has peaked, but changes to the Michigan survey will overstate any softening.
- The new method likely will lift the survey's five-to-10-year inflation expectations measure, slightly.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s central bank slowed the pace of rate cuts due to fiscal risks and rising inflation expectations.
- Policymakers have abandoned their previous forward guidance and become more data-dependent.
- The hawkish rate cut signals a cautious approach in H2, but the outlook for 2025 will be different.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
- Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
- While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
- We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
- The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising.
- Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside.
- Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A triple whammy of changes from the MPC suggests a June rate cut is more likely than not.
- Two rate-setters voted for a cut, and MPC forecasts indicate three Bank Rate reductions this year.
- The MPC’s guidance signals that pay settlements data over the next two months could seal the deal.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: China’s FX reserves fell sharply in April, thanks to a stronger dollar and a record rise in US yields
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Export recovery still on track, despite weaker headlines.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Weak, but output still rose in Q1 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry came out of recession in Q1, will it last?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
- Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
- Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction growth back with a bang.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
