Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: CEWC, China, December

In one line:signalling confidence, no major course shift

Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q4 2025

• In one line: On hold, as we expect it to be until early 2027. 

11 December 2025 China+ Monitor China's inflation print mixed; feeble demand the common thread

• China’s inflation outturn was a mixed bag, with CPI
  rising but PPI reflation seeming to lose momentum.
• A closer look reveals the CPI jump was due to transient
  factors, while PPI was dragged down by base effects.
• Weak domestic demand persisted in November, with all
  eyes on the CEWC for hints on future policy direction.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 December 2025

BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2025

Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.

December 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICES FELL IN SEPTEMBER...

• ...AND BUDGET WORRIES WILL WEIGH ON ACTIVITY IN Q4

Global Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, October 2025

In one line: Italian industry will be back on track after stumbling in October. 

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, November 2025

• In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.

UK Datanote: Final PMI, November 2025

In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, November 2025

In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2025

• In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 December 2025

A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth

10 December Global Monitor The SNB won't budge next year, even if inflation fall, below zero.

• US - Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches.
• EUROZONE - SNB to stand pat despite fall in inflation.
• UK - PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos.
• CHINA+ - China's Politburo focus on domestic demand and structural issues.
• EM ASIA - RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last.
• LATAM - Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite.

11 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our nowcasts are in line with our forecasts for the big four

• The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
• Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
• The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

11 December 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: cutting rates, and leaving the door open to one more

• We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
• Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
• The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.