Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, August

Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, August, 2024

• In one line: Resilient at the headline level, for now.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: EC ESI, EZ, September 2024

In one line: Down, like the PMI, and dovish on inflation and wages.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, September & ECB CES, EZ, August

In one line: Jobless claims in Germany rise again; EZ inflation expectations cool further.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation and Consumers' Spending, France & Spain, Sep/Aug

In one line: An October cut is now fully priced, and for good reason.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, September, 2024

• In one line:  The door has been left open for further easing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, September, 2024

• In one line:  The door has been left open for further easing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, August

Recovery in home sales likely to be very slow.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, August

Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

China+ Datanote: Politburo, China, September

Politburo confirms top-level priority on achieving growth target, but only hints at further fiscal support

Duncan WrigleyChina+

September 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS UNDER PRESSURE TO EASE MORE QUICKLY

• BUT “QUE SERA SERA”

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, September 2024

In one line: Rising again.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2024

In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2024

In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, August 2024

In one line: Still improving.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, October

In one line: Decent, but where is the spending growth?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, August

Suspiciously strong and likely to drop back from here.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, September, 2024

• In one line: Resuming the downtrend, despite significant threats.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

27 September 2024 US Monitor GDP revisions embellish picture of US outperformance post-Covid

• The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
• August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
• We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.

Samuel TombsUS

27 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation trends suggest stability in Selic rate outlook

• Inflation has been slowing rapidly in September, reinforcing our expectations for a stable Selic rate.
• Underlying pressures are still under control, and we expect the picture to remain benign in Q4.
• The current account deficit is widening amid falling exports, resilient imports and fiscal concerns.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America