Sales still struggling for momentum.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Decent headline, but rising unemployment fears is a red flag.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
GROWTH HOLDS UP BETTER THAN SURVEYS IMPLY
- …THE MPC CAN CUT ONLY TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Little sign of recovery in consumer confidence, but maybe the election changed that.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RISKS TO OUR HAWKISH ECB CALL ARE FOR LESS EASING...
- ...ASSUMING ONLY SMALL US TRADE TARIFF INCREASES
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- EZ consumers’ spending likely rose by 0.4-to-0.5% in Q4, and we look for the same in Q1.
- We still think a stabilisation in the saving rate will underpin consumption growth this year.
- Consumer confidence data point to a sticky saving rate, but are an unreliable guide.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
- Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
- The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Stung by plunge in net exports; consumption is now growing, but weakly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Governor Rhee signals one or two additional rate cuts this year after BoK's easing move today
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Governor Rhee signals one or two additional rate cuts this year after BoK's easing move today
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
- EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
- UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
- LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
- Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
- Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Huge volatility under the hood of German Q4 GDP; inventories and net trade are key for H1.
- We see full-year 2025 growth of 0.5% in Germany, lower than previously but above consensus.
- EZ negotiated wage growth retreated in Q4, after the one-off-related jump in Q3; further falls are likely
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
- The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
- We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Underlying inflation pressures remain under control.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
