Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Ending the year on a slightly more cheerful note.
Politburo signals urgency to stabilise domestic demand
Chinese exports resume solid growth to non-US markets
Japanese wages lifted by bonuses
In one line: Up sharply; autos yet to reverse fall in August.
Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.
- In one line: Inflation stays contained, supporting a rate cut this month.
In one line: Revised up despite another drag from net trade.
- In one line: Revised up despite a drag from net trade.
In one line: Orders rise again, boosted by major orders.
In one line: Spanish industry outperforms its French counterpart early in Q4.
- In one line: Not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts.
RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide
- Chaotic pre-Budget tax-hike speculation shifts the risk to our growth forecasts to the downside.
- The Chancellor’s decision to increase fuel duty from September 2026 raises our 2027 inflation forecast.
- We expect the MPC to cut in December and hold in 2026, but are close to adding an April 2026 cut too.
- EZ GDP growth picked up more than previously thought in Q3, far surpassing the ECB’s call, 0%.
- We reiterate our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q4, given our estimates for the big four.
- GDP growth will pick up in H1 next year, but probably by less than we previously thought.
- China is likely to allow gradual and managed currency appreciation in 2026.
- This will reinforce the show of strength which worked well for China during the tariff war.
- The key is that exports are likely to hold up, despite modest CNY appreciation.
- The RBI resumed easing, cutting by a further 25bp, but we still believe this was its last reduction…
- …The MPC’s tone was more neutral, and the mean reversion up in CPI in 2026 will lower real rate s.
- Philippine inflation missed to the downside in November, adding weight to our dovish BSP call.
- Contained inflation with a broad-based moderation allows BCCh to resume gradual easing soon…
- …CLP strength, lower food and oil prices, and relatively soft demand support a benign disinflation outlook.
- Mexico’s ambitious wage push will strain productivity, intensify inflation risks, and test Banxico.
- Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
- Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
- Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
- In one line: Growth almost stalls as industry steadies and agriculture rebounds.
- In one line: Growth almost stalls as industry steadies and agriculture rebounds.
In one line: Not much of a start to Q4.
