Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Soft, but selling prices point to upside risks for the core.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Samuel TombsUS
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
- Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
- Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
- President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs…
- ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to.
- The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Government bond issuance still taking centre stage, with modest uptick in household loans
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Before the tariff shock; what happens next?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
- …They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
- Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China acted as the adult in the room on Friday, saying it will not match any further US tariff hikes.
- This is hopefully the escalation off-ramp, paving the way for bilateral talks, probably in several months.
- Still, tariffs will likely remain high, hurting exports, worsening excess supply and so prolonging deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
- Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
- ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsGlobal
