- In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: At target, and risks tilted to the downside over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Core pressures lingering, but disinflation resumes.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core pressures lingering, but disinflation resumes.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
- The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
- We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil’s inflation is stabilising, but the US tariffs shock threatens growth and adds new inflation risks.
- Market reaction has been swift, but fundamentals and carry still support a stable BRL outlook.
- Services inflation remains sticky and disinflation could stall if external strains persist or escalate.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
- The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
- We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- A third of Swiss pharma exports go to the US; a 200% tariff could pull GDP down 4% at the extreme.
- Offsetting factors remain and, in the near term, tariff front-running poses upside risks to our forecasts.
- The maximum direct hit to EZ GDP of a 200% US tariff on pharma is 1%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
- The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
- Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Indonesian sales remain tepid, at best… stimulus ‘pop’ looking small
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's worsening producer deflation mainly due to bad weather
Low core consumer inflation reflects weak demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Sales extend their slide as headwinds mount.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
