Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Dip in mortgage rates providing only a small tailwind.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- In one line:Weak growth seals a December rate cut, but be careful because underlying growth is better than the headline.
- In one line: Car production shutdown tanks exports, but that will unwind in October and November.
- In one line: REC survey shows stabilising jobs market, suggesting weak official payrolls will be revised better.
- In one line: The spectacle of months of tax speculation takes its toll, but house price inflation should recover after the Budget.
- In one line: Gold imports are still surging, but real import demand has also gone up a gear.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- AI has had a net positive impact on the labor market this year; job losses in tech have been small...
- ...While surging stock prices for AI firms have boosted households’ spending and, therefore, employment.
- Layoffs, however, likely will step up next year as AI adoption becomes more widespread.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank, hit by weaker net exports, a slower inventory rise and falling residential investment.
- The government aims to secure a larger supplementary budget than in 2024, leading to bond-market worries.
- The diplomatic spat with China over Taiwan could put a 0.3pp dent in GDP growth if Chinese tourism stops.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
- The Chancellor ditching an income-tax hike means more back-loaded and shakier fiscal consolidation.
- The government will also likely have to pare back its plans to cut energy utility prices by £200 per year.
- Back-loaded and smaller tax hikes reduce the need for MPC rate cuts in 2026 and raise gilt premia.
In one line: Worse than we thought; upside risks loom for Q4.
Weak net exports of goods and tourism hit growth
Private consumption was sluggish
Business non-residential investment was resilient
Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss
In one line: Drag from net trade in goods disappeared in Q3, as US exports jumped, supporting the confirmed picked up in GDP growth.
In one line: Lowest in the Eurozone.
