Pantheon Publications

December 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICES FELL IN SEPTEMBER...

• ...AND BUDGET WORRIES WILL WEIGH ON ACTIVITY IN Q4

Global Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, November 2025

• In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.

UK Datanote: Final PMI, November 2025

In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, November 2025

In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2025

• In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 December 2025

A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth

10 December Global Monitor The SNB won't budge next year, even if inflation fall, below zero.

• US - Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches.
• EUROZONE - SNB to stand pat despite fall in inflation.
• UK - PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos.
• CHINA+ - China's Politburo focus on domestic demand and structural issues.
• EM ASIA - RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last.
• LATAM - Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Price Index, November 2025

• In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us. 

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, October 2025

• In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, November 2025

• In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, November 2025

• In one line: Export growth remains eye-wateringly high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 December 2025

Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate

10 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation uptick signals caution, but Banxico still moving towards easing

• Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
• …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
• Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.

10 December 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: Budget chaos to hit jobs, but pay stubborn

• We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
• The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
• Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.

10 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Is the German economy about to take off? Early Q4 data suggest so

• German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4. 
• Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3. 
• Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.

10 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely will signal a Q1 pause, but only tentatively

• Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
• Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
• We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.