New residential construction likely to flatline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Construction went back into recession in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: An inevitable correction; further softness ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Retail sales defy the rain to rise in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China picked up in Q3, but GDP growth will still need to double q/q in Q4 to get close to full-year target
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chile’s central bank cut by a steady 25bp, despite choppy external conditions.
- Subdued inflation pressures and sluggish economic activity point to further easing, to neutral…
- …But volatile external trends, potentially hitting the CLP and fiscal accounts, are a key threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
- …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
- Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Q3 GDP growth rose from Q2 but still needs to double in Q4 to get close to the full-year target.
- Fiscal stimulus policies, via government investment and auto trade-ins, spurred activity in September.
- Additional support is needed for China to restore inflation in the still-falling GDP deflator in Q3.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB's Bank Lending Survey points to looser lending standards and rising demand for credit...
- ...supporting our view that growth in investment and household consumption will turn a corner soon.
- Nowcast models for Q3 GDP point to downside risks to growth; we think they're misleadingly negative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Surprisingly strong retail sales in September suggest consumers are shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
- Weather and unfavourable seasonals hit September sales, so the trend is better than the headlines.
- Real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help consumer spending support GDP growth in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Boeing strike weighs on an already struggling sector.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Growth indicators are rising in importance for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Growth indicators are rising in importance for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The first big win for ECB doves in a long time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The first big win for ECB doves in a long time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's new property market policies will provide only a modest demand lift
Duncan WrigleyChina+
