Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
- The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
- The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
- Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.
- Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
- Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
- Colombia — Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
- Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
- Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
- BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
- Lower airfare inflation offset higher food and motor fuels, leaving CPI inflation at 3.8% in August.
- Underlying services inflation accelerated to 4.3%, from 4.2% in July, where it will stay until the spring.
- We expect CPI inflation to hit 4.0% in September—with upside risk—and then ease only slowly.
In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.
In one line: Lifted by rebound in equities.
- In one line: Modestly deanchored inflation expectations warrant caution from the MPC.
- In one line: The underlying trade balance fell erratically in July, but it will remain weak.
- In one line:Q3 growth on track for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- US - FOMC too nervous about inflation to endorse the market curve
- EUROZONE - Closer to an estimate for the Q1 2026 fall in German energy prices
- UK - CPI preview: nudging up to 3.9% in August as food prices jump
- CHINA+ - China’s ailing domestic demand likely to prompt targeted support
- EM ASIA - EM Asia laggards won’t chip away at the Asian Tigers’ chip dominance
- LATAM - Brazil economy weakens as tight policy and tariffs weigh heavily
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales continued to climb in August, despite the tariffs...
- ...But consumer have endured only one-third of the tariff costs; Q4 sales likely will be much weaker.
- Manufacturing output edged up again in August, but capex is impeded by tariff uncertainty.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in July, with manufacturing and construction the key drags.
- Tentative stabilisation emerges as PMI improves, but trade noise and weak confidence keep risks elevated.
- Peru’s BCRP trims rates toward neutral as inflation eases and activity is resilient; risks still loom, though.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
