- We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
- Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
- We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI tanks, but was driven by erratic falls and should improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales still rose in Q4, and further increases are likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still pointing to underlying weakness in construction.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Everyone seems to have forgotten the Tet noise in Vietnamese trade
A more believable retail sales print from Vietnam, no doubt flattered by Tet
Healthcare costs provide Vietamese inflation with a further—much bigger—jolt
Thai inflation continues to float just a touch above the lower bound of BoT's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Exports and public spending helped to keep Indonesia’s ship absurdly 'steady’ in Q4
Philippine inflation should start to move sideways from here
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Signs of underlying strength, despite boost from major orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The first quarterly contraction in more than a year, and the outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will have to plot a middle path.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil’s industrial output beat consensus in December, yet leading indicators point to a weakening trend.
- January’s COPOM minutes reveal a hawkish stance, despite economic activity softening.
- Peru’s inflation remains well on target, paving the way for a final rate cut in Q2, assuming a stable PEN.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- House prices rose by around 3.5% in 2024, much stronger than we were anticipating…
- …A recovery in demand and still-subdued supply point to a further pick-up, supporting consumption.
- German industry ended 2024 on a better note than we expected, according to advance turnover data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC’s words, forecasts and pay survey point to only one-to-two more rate cuts this year.
- Rate-setters are guiding to “careful and gradual” cuts, and placing more weight on their hawkish scenarios.
- So, we think the market has gone too far in pricing a better-than-even chance of three more cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Private car registrations fall eases in January; the trend should improve in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Poor, but output likely rebounded in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's Caixin services activity slows, but sentiment improves
Japanese wages enjoy year-end bonus boost
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Mexican Peso — Complex economic and external waters
- Colombian Peso — Trade and fiscal issues in the spotlight
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
