Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2024

In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November

In one line: Support from cash stimulus starting to surface, if you squint.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, January

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 January 2025: Tokyo inflation bumps up

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 February 2025 US Monitor A growth scare looms, as tariffs hit and the saving rate rebounds

The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.

Samuel TombsUS

3 February 2025 LatAm Monitor US trade threats cast shadow over Mexico's 2025 economic outlook

Mexico’s economic fragility is exposed as US trade policy pushes activity to the verge of recession.
Banxico will have to balance slowing growth, potential US tariffs and the MXN’s performance.
Chile’s landmark pension reform strengthens social security and dismantles systemic uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 February 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Why we're sticking our neck out again for Indonesia's Q4 GDP report

We reckon Indonesian GDP growth fell ‘sharply’ to 4.7% in Q4, especially with payback due in stocks.
Thailand’s full consumption data for Q4 show the first handout in September provided no real boost.
The complete details of Vietnam’s hot Q4 GDP show that it was driven very narrowly by education.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 February 2025 China+ Monitor DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors

DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Risks tilted slightly to the downside for EZ headline inflation today

We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 February 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: 2025 growth down and inflation up as tax hikes bite

Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK