In one line: Construction kept going at the start of 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The end of the road for the SNB’s current easing cycle?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The surprisingly hawkish 8-to-1 vote to hold rates, and guidance changes, signal a more cautious MPC.
- Saying policy is not “on a pre-set path” gives the MPC the option to skip a cut at May’s meeting.
- The risk of a sharp job fall fades as the hard data hold up; pay growth remains too strong for 2% inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The SNB cut rates for the fifth straight meeting, as expected, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The lack of changes to the decision statement and forecasts means June’s meeting is wide open…
- ...But we maintain that the Bank has more reasons to keep its powder dry than cut again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil — Lula cutting taxes to regain popularity
- Mexico — Reforms, controversies and trade hurdles
- Colombia — Turbulent times amid reform efforts
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate at 5.75% for a second meeting, against our minority rate-cut call.
- We still expect 100bp in total easing this year; the consensus on 2025 inflation remains way too high.
- The equity sell-off will add more urgency to cuts, as it’s deep enough to have real implications for capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ left rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting, citing the evolving external situation as a new risk.
- The Bank considers developments in domestic wages and prices are in line with it achieving its policy target.
- We continue to expect two more hikes in 2025, taking rates to 1%, with the next rise in Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Higher deficit spending to fund increased security commitments will weigh on gilts.
- We raise our gilt yield forecasts to reflect our call that Bank Rate will settle at 4%, up from 3.75% previously.
- Fewer interest rate cuts relative to major peers will support sterling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in February, which is as good as it will get this year.
- Non-energy goods is a wild card for inflation in March; base effects point to a big jump.
- A blanket and sustained EU retaliatory tariff would lift inflation, but we doubt this is on the cards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Ending 2024 on a strong note, but risks loom for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: First signs of tariff front running by US firms, but also by EU firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Up and away; let’s hope the fiscal stimulus package passes today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
