Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
PAYROLL TAXES CUT GROWTH AND BOOST INFLATION
- …THE MPC WILL BE ABLE TO CUT RATES THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Stable Q4 headline hides renewed deterioration in Philippine private consumption
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Another bold rate hike and a continued hawkish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
SURVEYS SIGNAL A BUOYANT HOUSING MARKET...
- ...WE FORECAST PRICES TO RISE 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another bold rate hike and a continued hawkish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
- ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here.
- Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
- LatAm policymakers are facing increased inflation risks amid elevated global uncertainty and threats.
- Brazil’s COPOM maintained its hawkish stance with a bold hike, continuing to fight inflation near-term.
- Chile’s BCCh paused its easing, adopting a neutral bias, as inflation pressures increase.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP growth missed expectations for a rise, with the headline steady at 5.2%…
- …Private domestic demand relapsed, and the quarterly lift from net trade isn’t much to celebrate.
- 2025 growth should stay largely subdued, at 5.4%, especially with investment likely to slow further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s real exports jumped in December, reflecting front-loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes.
- The January flash manufacturing PMIs fell, with new export orders remaining weak.
- Business expectations are still relatively strong though, despite worries about trade risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB eased policy further, as expected, but it is now likely closer to neutral than markets think.
- EZ GDP stagnated in Q4, held back by declines in the two largest economies, Germany and France.
- The first national inflation figures for January lead us to raise our call for EZ core inflation, due out today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Little sign of consumer gloom in the money and credit data, as households cut back on saving…
- ...Consumers cut real liquid assets by £0.3B month-to-month in December, and mortgage approvals rose.
- Payroll-tax hikes hit capex, however, with corporate net external finance falling in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
