- Little sign of consumer gloom in the money and credit data, as households cut back on saving…
- ...Consumers cut real liquid assets by £0.3B month-to-month in December, and mortgage approvals rose.
- Payroll-tax hikes hit capex, however, with corporate net external finance falling in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Ignore headline fall; M1 growth is still accelerating.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but far from conclusive for consumption growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: On hold due to increased uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold due to increased uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Aircraft likely drove a plunge in equipment investment in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Taiwan’s GDP growth in Q4 was weaker than expected, at 1.8%, down from 4.2% in Q3…
- …Every component, except investment, was weaker quarter-to-quarter, especially net exports.
- The MAS finally pivoted; expect more easing to come, with core inflation under heavy pressure.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% q/q in Q4, and by 3.2% over 2024 as a whole, beating expectations.
- Growth will likely slow this year but remain stellar, such that Spain outperforms the big three, again.
- The IESI suggests Italian GDP growth will remain decent in Q1, after likely rebounding in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- The MPC is likely to raise near-term inflation forecasts above 3.0% but cut two-year-ahead projections a bit.
- The MPC will probably agree implicitly with a market curve that prices around three rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Political uncertain forces banks to tighten lending standards again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A rebound, but still subdued overall.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...
- ...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s economic resilience is tested by volatile trade dynamics and shifting global investment patterns.
- Foreign direct investment improved in 2024, while portfolio investments reflect fiscal uncertainty.
- Chile’s senate approved a pension bill, reshaping social security and addressing economic issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rising political uncertainty likely contributed to tightening credit standards in Q4…
- …But we need more data to tell whether this is the start of a sustained shift; we doubt it.
- French consumer confidence rebounded in January but still signals upside risk to unemployment.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
