Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The core PCE deflator undershot the Fed’s forecast yet again in July; expect more benign prints in H2.
- Recent strength in consumption lacks solid foundations; the saving rate will be higher a year from now.
- The ISM probably remained soft in August, pointing to weak growth in manufacturing employment
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Peru’s inflation is easing, as the core rate has hit BCRP’s target; it likely will continue to cut rates.- Chile’s economic activity rebounded in July, but challenges are persisting in key sectors.
- Colombia’s labour market is sending mixed signals amid an uneven economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesia’s main inflation gauges were unchanged in August: the headline at 2.1% and core at 2.0%…
- …But food inflation remains a big drag and will likely pull the headline below 1.5% at the turn of the year.
- The budget deficit has ballooned this year, but 2025 looks set to see only marginal subsidy reductions.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
- Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
- Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The small 0.2% q/q increase in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade held back growth...
- ...But so did construction investment, where dwellings investment is falling.
- Both trends will be offset by a rebound in inventories and stronger consumers’ spending in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Brazil’s labour market showed resilience in H1, yet signs of a gradual slowdown are starting to emerge.
- Leading indicators signal the labour market is plateauing, due to tighter financial conditions.
- Industrial gains offset consumption challenges in Chile; the recovery remains sluggish.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s Q2 GDP was hit largely by the unwinding of the discrepancy boost, hiding a consumer bump.
- The Q3 PMIs so far point to a further slowdown, and business expectations continue to sour rapidly.
- The pressure on households persists, but the gap between liabilities and asset growth is closing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s controversial ‘housing pension’ scheme rollout highlights the cost of an aging housing stock.
- Homeowners worry they will have to foot more of the bill for maintaining housing; another reason to save.
- Q2 credit data suggest the game plan to hit “about 5%” GDP growth this year is running into obstacles.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ inflation fell to its lowest since July 2021 in August, marginally above the ECB’s target...
- ...The Bank will find it hard to justify its current restrictive stance, especially with wage growth easing.
- We think a September rate cut is more likely than not and keep our October cut in too, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumers and firms seem gradually to be shifting behaviour in response to expected interest rate cuts.
- Households raised liquid assets by the least in 11 months, and mortgage approvals jumped.
- Smoothing through volatility, corporates have been raising net external finance since March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The small recent rise in continuing claims suggests July’s unemployment rate was overestimated.
- We are pencilling in a 0.1pp dip in the rate to 4.2% in August, despite the worsening trend.
- The rapid 2.9% growth in consumers’ spending in Q2 looks unsustainable; expect a sharp slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s latest data paint a picture of a struggling economy, with risks tilted to the downside.
- We expect the BCCh to resume rate cuts to support the economic upturn, but electricity tariffs pose a risk.
- Improving external demand, rate cuts and Fed easing will support the economic recovery in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Spanish inflation was pulled down sharply in August by falling energy inflation.
- The German headline also took a leg down, to a 41-month low, despite stable services inflation.
- We now think EZ inflation data today will show a 2% print for August; EZ inflation is at the ECB’s target.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem announced a 9.5% utility price-cap increase for October, fractionally lower than we expected.
- Accordingly, we edge down our December CPI inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.
- Wholesale energy futures prices and geopolitical risk point to further utility-bill hikes in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: HICP inflation below consensus in Spain and in Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
- Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
- Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
BSP PULLS THE TRIGGER ON RATE CUTS
- …INDIA’S FINAL 2024/25 BUDGET IS NO GAME-CHANGER
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for little change in in initial jobless claims today, and a run of lower numbers this fall…
- …Leading indicators have improved and the seasonals will help; but lower hiring will slow job gains.
- The hit to growth from the rising trade deficit will be offset by boosts from inventories and investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Money data suggest the savings rate is no longer rising, pointing to a pick-up in spending…
- ...Lending and credit figures are also turning up, consistent with stronger investment growth.
- For how long will money data remain positive? We see nascent signs they will turn down soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
