- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s economic resilience is tested by volatile trade dynamics and shifting global investment patterns.
- Foreign direct investment improved in 2024, while portfolio investments reflect fiscal uncertainty.
- Chile’s senate approved a pension bill, reshaping social security and addressing economic issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rising political uncertainty likely contributed to tightening credit standards in Q4…
- …But we need more data to tell whether this is the start of a sustained shift; we doubt it.
- French consumer confidence rebounded in January but still signals upside risk to unemployment.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House price inflation will accelerate after posting a gain of just 0.1% month-to-month in November.
- Forward-looking indicators point to house price inflation reaching 5% year-over-year in the spring…
- …But sticky borrowing costs and tax changes will cap annual growth in house prices at 4% in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
New home sales likely to tread water at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence drops again in January as risks to the growth outlook build.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders bounce back, but activity remains chronically weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes cut jobs but raise inflation so the MPC will have to plot a middle course of cautious cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Colombia’s diplomatic team successfully averted a full-blown economic and political crisis with the US.
- Their Presidents’ social-media spat almost triggered a massive trade war; LatAm is watching.
- Mexico achieved a record trade surplus with the US in 2024 amid economic tensions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s official PMIs unexpectedly fell in January; manufacturing activity dropped to a five-month low.
- The services PMI reversed December’s gain and fell back to the period-average prior to that month.
- Manufacturers and developers are optimistic about the outlook despite local and global headwinds.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- High gas prices and low inventories in the EU risk higher Eurozone inflation in Q2 and Q3.
- Russian gas imports will likely dwindle further; the US, Norway and Qatar can cover some of the gap…
- ...But at what price? And what will happen if Chinese or domestic US demand ramps up?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Average earnings growth was surprisingly strong in November, even accounting for statistical noise.
- PAYE signals a 4.8% annualised month-to-month gain in private-sector ex-bonus AWE in December 2024.
- Slowing settlements are consistent with private AWE growth easing to 4.0% in Q4 2025, matching our call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Up marginally, supporting our view of a modest rebound in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Q4 leap in home sales in unlikely to last.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Under pressure, and threats abound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, and the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
