New home sales unlikely to keep rising.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Slow start to Taiwanese retail spending growth in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Solid, but not enough to reverse the plunge in July.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Cooling of Singaporean services inflation prone to reversal
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
- Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
- New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: CBI orders and prices rebound as expected in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.
Samuel TombsUK
- Chair Powell probably will indicate at Jackson Hole that multiple rate cuts are likely this year.
- The S&P Global composite PMI has joined the raft of indicators pointing to weaker hiring.
- Existing home sales rebounded in July, but a sustained near-term recovery is unlikely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Malaysian headline inflation benefited from food disinflation, which offset higher services inflation...
- …But this engine of disinflation is likely to stall in the coming months, resulting in the headline rising.
- We still expect the BNM to hold policy rates in 2024, as average inflation is below its forecast.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The downturn in the EZ composite PMI was halted by the Olympics in France; only temporarily we think.
- The PMIs point to firming growth in services, while manufacturing is still stuck in recession.
- A big drop in Q2 wage growth seals the deal for a September cut, and helps our call for an October cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI is now pointing to Q3 GDP rising by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, below the MPC’s forecast.
- Falling inflation signalled by the August PMI as both input and output price balances drop.
- Firms are confident to hire again; the MPC will be wary of employment growth in a tight labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
