- In one line: Under pressure, and threats abound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, and the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
India’s key services PMI plunged to a 15-month low to start the year
A largely unwelcome consolidation of the Philippines’ trade deficit in late-2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA’S Q4 ACTIVITY BUMP IS LIKELY TO FADE
- - BOJ IS KEEN TO NORMALISE RATES
- - BOK IS LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: New year relief, but still subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Under control, but core pressures are increasing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Business confidence is net unchanged since before the election, while consumers are more downbeat.
- PMI data signal strong growth in January payrolls, but other indicators point to renewed weakness.
- We doubt Mr Trump can engineer a both boom in oil output and much lower rates in the short term.
Samuel TombsUS
- The modest monthly ICPA-15 gain masks underlying inflation pressures in Brazil.
- External noise and fiscal uncertainty complicate Brazil’s inflation outlook and policy decisions.
- Mexico’s economy slowed in Q4, as policy uncertainty, high real rates and global risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s key services PMI has plunged to a 15-month low; the Q1 data so far point clearly to a GDP drop.
- We expect only a modest bounce in GDP growth in the Philippines in Q4, to 5.4%, from 5.2% in Q3.
- Thai exports stayed solid in Q4, but equally robust imports mute their lift, and downside risks prevail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ raised the policy rate on Friday; Governor Ueda hinted at further rate hikes at a measured pace.
- The Bank is optimistic about continued steady wage inflation this year, given signs of labour shortages.
- It lifted its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025, due to higher import costs and rice inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week; discussions on the level of neutral will intensify.
- Upside risks to energy, downside risks to the core in the national CPI and HICP data this week.
- EZ PMIs firmed in January, supporting our call for stronger EZ GDP growth in the first quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
