- Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
- The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
- We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Underlying inflation pressures remain under control.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
- The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
- In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The failure of FDP and BSW to reach 5% paves the way for a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition in Germany.
- Germany’s new government has its work cut out; fiscal reform and defence are at the top of the list.
- EZ inflation rose in January, but a sharp fall in energy inflation will pull the headline down in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
- But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
- Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: A local high, but still no perfect landing at 2%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A local high, but still no perfect landing at 2%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Steady; not a reflection of firms’ attitudes to election result.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A bad end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A bad end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line:Retail sales recover from pre-Budget worries, more gains lie ahead as wages rise solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Fiscal pressures pile on the Chancellor as revenues undershoot in January; it will only get worse from here.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth is weak but has bottomed while price pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong wage growth and falling interest rates will keep supporting consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Up again, in line with our call for a rebound in GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
