- In one line: The trade deficit narrows in November but remains wide; import prices point to firming goods inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Budget uncertainty, tax hikes and Mr. Trump's tariff threats continue to weigh on growth
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation of 5% in 2025 according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Core inflation is sticky around 3%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Gold imports correct sharply—again—but their broad trend is upwards.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: House price inflation will reaccelerate in the New Year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Discount downside news which was driven by erratic airfares and hotels that will rebound; inflation is still heading above 3% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Industry was a drag on EZ GDP again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Tighter financial conditions are starting to limit economic activity in Brazil, as the IBC-BR index notes.
- We think conditions will deteriorate in the short run; this is corroborated by recent survey data.
- Peru’s recovery is continuing; it will be the top performer in LatAm in 2025, despite political issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoK delivered a ‘dovish hold’ yesterday due to FX-volatility worries, in line with our forecast.
- The MPB recognises the need to shore up the economy but wants to learn more of Trump’s plans.
- The Bank is likely to resume rate cuts in February, as downside risks to domestic growth are rising.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ trade rebounded in November, thanks to a bounce-back in exports to the US…
- ...This is not a clear sign of front-loading, yet, but marks a rebound from US port closures in October.
- US firms are more focused on China at the moment, which risks limited near-term upside for EZ exports.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth halted when Ms. Reeves signalled tax hikes, a shock compounded by Mr. Trump’s tariff threats.
- But falling consumer saving and public spending will help growth recover in 2025.
- The MPC will cut rates in February but will have to be cautious as inflation rises above 3% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Investment is falling off a cliff; what’s the play Mr. Merz?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Dovish; upside risks for the headline in January, but electricity tariffs set to fall sharply in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Ignore the volatility, the trade surplus is growing, slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
