Ignore the volatility, Indonesia's trade surplus is growing, slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
Politics still making the NFIB harder to read.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — Fiscal issues to remain a drag
- Mexico — A cautiously optimistic outlook
- Colombia — Monetary policy easing will be a support
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia surprised the universal consensus for a hold this month, lowering the BI rate to 5.75%…
- …The Board is right to tolerate the rupiah’s dollar- driven slump, amid its rising GDP growth worries.
- Ignore the December collapse in the trade surplus; smoothing out the noise yields a rising trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The investment downturn in Germany deepened in 2024; the new government will need to act.
- This year should be a year of recovery for growth in German household consumption.
- Headline inflation in France is set for a volatile few months due to big swings in energy prices.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- December’s surprise inflation fall gives the MPC a narrow window of opportunity to cut rates in February.
- But lower inflation was due to plunging airfares, driven by an early CPI collection date.
- Airfares inflation will surge in January, as will private-school fees, raising CPI inflation to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Improvement in industry in Q4 is partly why we think GDP growth rebounded.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Expect a quieter year for Indian WPI inflation in 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: China's 2024 export value surpasses Covid peak, trade surplus hits record high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases further, but overcapacity risks remain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s core inflation shows a silver lining; Headline CPI nears deflation on falling food prices.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves fell more than consensus in December, thanks to sizable valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Colombia’s headline disinflation paused in December, but the core improved.
- High fiscal uncertainty and a huge minimum-wage increase complicate BanRep’s rate-cutting ability.
- The government must tackle the fiscal deficit, rising debt and reform issues to allow BanRep to act freely.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- CPI fell more comfortably within the RBI’s target range in December, clearing the way for a rate cut…
- …More downside is in store for food inflation, but the upward normalisation in the core isn’t over yet.
- The rupee’s weakness of late probably has the RBI’s blessing; it’s been kept stable for far too long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
