Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Sales still struggling for momentum.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Decent headline, but rising unemployment fears is a red flag.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
TRADE NOISE TESTS LATAM’S RESILIENCE…
- …AND TIGHT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS REMAIN A THREAT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
GROWTH HOLDS UP BETTER THAN SURVEYS IMPLY
- …THE MPC CAN CUT ONLY TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role...
- ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
- Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
- Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
- The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss GDP rose by 0.5% on the quarter in Q4, much better than the measly 0.1% growth in EZ GDP.
- Growth will slow, falling in line with that in the EZ, as net trade drags on GDP and spending growth slows.
- The US President has fired another tariff threat at the EU, but we are still in waiting mode.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
- We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
- We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Little sign of recovery in consumer confidence, but maybe the election changed that.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RISKS TO OUR HAWKISH ECB CALL ARE FOR LESS EASING...
- ...ASSUMING ONLY SMALL US TRADE TARIFF INCREASES
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Finally smelling the coffee.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- CPI core goods inflation will rise to 2% soon, from zero, if the latest manufacturing surveys are right...
- ...But we see little sign of cost pressures besides the China tariffs, which at most entail a 1pp uplift.
- January headline durable goods orders likely were strong, but we see renewed weakness ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
- …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ consumers’ spending likely rose by 0.4-to-0.5% in Q4, and we look for the same in Q1.
- We still think a stabilisation in the saving rate will underpin consumption growth this year.
- Consumer confidence data point to a sticky saving rate, but are an unreliable guide.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
- Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
- The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Stung by plunge in net exports; consumption is now growing, but weakly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Governor Rhee signals one or two additional rate cuts this year after BoK's easing move today
Duncan WrigleyChina+
