Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

15 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor Italian GDP growth picked up in Q4, unlike in the rest of the big four

Italian industrial production data for November were decent, as we expected…
...We continue to think Italian GDP rose in Q4, after stagnating in Q3; our 0.3% call is above consensus.
Growth will rise in 2025 and—barring any political upheaval—the BTP-Bund spread will narrow further.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 January 2025 UK Monitor Gilt yields will fall, but difficult fiscal decisions await

Surging gilt yields have been driven mainly by a global repricing, rather than idiosyncratic UK sovereign risk.
We expect gilt yields to fall during 2025 as the MPC cuts interest rates and fiscal worries fade.
The Chancellor will plan for weaker public spending to offset higher debt interest costs.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: CPI, India, December

In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, December

In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 January 2025 US Monitor Risks to the consensus for CPI are strongly skewed to the upside

We look for a 0.5% increase in the December headline CPI, and a fifth straight 0.3% rise in the core.
Strong holiday demand boosted prices for gasoline, air transportation and accommodation.
Rent and auto insurance prices likely rebounded after below-trend increases in November.

Samuel TombsUS

14 January 2025 LatAm Monitor Peru's BCRP wrapping up its rate-cut cycle, despite needing more easing

The BCRP cut the reference rate by 25bp to 4.75%; the easing cycle is approaching its conclusion.
One final quarter-point rate cut will come soon, unless inflation expectations decline significantly.
Mexico’s industrial sector faces ongoing issues; its future is dependent on potential Trump 2.0 policies.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

14 January 2025 China+ Monitor All eyes on China's likely response to President Trump's opening salvo

China’s export growth rebounded in December, led by improvements in ASEAN and US shipments.
China suffers from overcapacity in some industries, with export volume growing faster than value.
Will President Trump follow through on his tariff threats on his first day, and how will China respond?

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor Risks still tilted to the downside for EZ equity prices in 2025

Euro area equities have been propped up by elevated margins, but can this continue?
A forecast with margins one SD above their average still points to around 10% downside for EZ equities.
Book value points to negative returns for EZ equity investors on a five-year basis.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 January 2025 UK Monitor Budget weakens job growth, but pay increases remain strong

We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in December, as tax hikes weigh on hiring intentions.
The official unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.3% in November, but it is trending up gradually.
Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, keeping the MPC cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK