Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Consumers' Spending, France, November 2024

In one line: Better than feared. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 January 2025

Indonesian sales growth should at least settle at a floor, shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 January 2025 US Monitor Payrolls are too noisy for December's data to convincing signal an upturn

• December payroll growth likely will be revised to a slower pace, given the usual skew in late responses.
• The trend is revealed only from data spanning about six months; payroll growth was lower in H2 than H1.
• Homebase data make payroll forecasts less accurate; they are a poor guide even to hospitality payrolls.

Samuel TombsUS

13 January 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal

• Brazil’s headline inflation ended 2024 benignly, but the outlook is difficult, demanding urgent action.
• Fiscal solutions are needed, even if slowing activity and higher interest rates will contain inflation.
• The retail and industrial sectors face increasing hurdles, as November’s data highlight.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 January 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't put much stock into India's 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn't over

• India’s 6.4% advance GDP estimate for 2024/25 is on the rosy side and includes contradictory details…
• …The slowdown isn’t over, and we can’t see how the FAE squares rising demand with falling imports.
• Retail sales in Indonesia appear to have ended 2024 ver y softly; this is oddly reassuring.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 January 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ left in a bind, with mixed signals on the wage outlook

• Governor Ueda is keeping the BoJ's options open, monitoring Mr. Trump's return to power, and wages.
• Japan's November wage growth was steady, but most small firms aren't planning big wage hikes.
• Manufacturers are surprisingly optimistic, despite the darkening risks of trade protectionism.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 January 2025 EZ Monitor France hit a soft patch in Q4, which will extend into early 2025

• GDP in France likely fell slightly in Q4, and we doubt that Q1 will deliver a strong rebound…
• …But we’re still betting that solid real income growth will support stronger GDP growth from Q2.
• We now forecast 2025 GDP growth in France of 0.8%, marginally higher than the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 January 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: more inflation persistence means fewer rate cuts

• Inflation staying at 2.6% in December would be a temporary reprieve; it’s heading to 3.2% in April.
• The GDP rebound in November should lead to doubts about the accuracy of the PMI.
• Rising inflation expectations suggest the bond market is right to expect the MPC to be cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: Brazil Retail Sales, November, 2024

• In one line: Under pressure due to tight financial conditions. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: CPI, Mexico, December, 2024

• In one line: The downtrend is on track. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, December, 2024

• In one line: The downtrend is on track. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, November 2024

In one line: Disappointing, but still consistent with a rise in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, November 2024

In one line: That’s more like it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 January 2025

Real import demand in the Philippines was due a correction

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: ESI, Eurozone, December 2024

In one line: Hit by declines in Germany and France; services are still holding up overall.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims / ADP

Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: Industrial Output, Brazil, November, 2024

• In one line: Facing renewed pressure.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: CPI, Chile, December, 2024

• In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: CPI, Chile, December, 2024

• In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 January 2025 US Monitor Markets are primed to overreact to December payrolls

• Option pricing indicates markets will move sharply today if payrolls deviate much from the consensus...
• ...But payrolls have become noisier as the response rate has declined; trends take six months to emerge.
• Auto sales have been lifted by storms, tariff talk and a dip in auto loan rates; expect sales to falter mid-year.

Samuel TombsUS