- July’s headline PMI signals 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth and only a gradual decline in inflation.
- Surging business optimism, hiring and new orders suggests activity growth will accelerate.
- The July PMI will not push the MPC to cut rates again in September; we now expect November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008…
- ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound.
- We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Weak Korean export rebound was disappointing; working-day adjusted growth actually eased sharply.
- Deeper dive in US shipment growth was the driver, coupled with a double-digit plunge in car exports.
- Firming KRW and easing cost burden give BoK more room to cut rates, but unlikely to hasten the timeline.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Weak economic activity in Chile signals a need for further interest rate cuts, despite headwinds.
- Confidence declines sharply, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty and higher electricity tariffs.
- Peru maintains benign inflation, allowing the BCRP to consider future rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Economic and market conditions usually have been worse than now to trigger an emergency Fed meeting...
- ...But rates are far above neutral and the next meeting is six weeks out; Mr. Powell will act if markets deteriorate.
- July’s ISM services survey kept recession fears at bay, but it still strongly supports the case for Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: The PMI signals steady growth now and a stronger expansion to follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Private sales remain weak, total registrations continue to grow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Still suggesting private sector activity stalled at the start of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still suggesting private sector activity stalled at the start of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rising in June, as in France and Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Machinery capex bump cushions the unwinding of election spending in Indonesia
Fall in discretionary spending sends Singaporean sales growth back into the red
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50bp in September is strong.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: A relief, but production likely fell back in July.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stubborn domestic inflation means headline held steady.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
- Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
- We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Colombia’s BanRep cut rates by 50bp amid a modest economic recovery and further inflation risks.
- Chile’s BCCh was more cautious, keeping rates steady amid uncertainty driven by electricity tariffs.
- BanRep has signaled further rate cuts, contrasting with BCCh’s more data-dependent approach.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- SG property prices remain high despite multiple rounds of cooling measures from the government...
- ... As market supply is still suffering from pandemic-era shortages and robust demand.
- The risk of additional measures remains elevated since price growth is likely to remain strong.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s new urbanisation action plan, announced last week, has largely flown under the radar...
- ...But, if properly implemented, it should go a long way to rebalancing China’s economy...
- ...By unleashing the full domestic demand potential embedded in the unfinished urbanisation project.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
