Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- December inflation data for Mexico and Chile suggest their central banks will remain cautious in Q1.
- Headline inflation in Mexico fell to the lowest level since 2021, but core inflation edged up in late Q4.
- Chile’s underlying disinflation trend continued in December, but the CLP sell-off is a near-term threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s export growth moderated in December, though the headline was tarnished by base effects…
- …Import growth nearly doubled to 30.4%, from 19.8% in November, pulling down the trade surplus.
- Headline inflation remained stubborn in December, at 2.1%, due to a continued rise in food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s CPI inched closer to deflation in December; fresh food and pork prices were the main drags.
- Core inflation improved for the third straight month, highlighting stabilising demand conditions.
- PPI reflation hinges on stimulus-related demand and how China addresses its overcapacity issue.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Bunds now align with our 2025 forecasts, but they’ve likely come a little too far, too fast.
- The balance of risks for German Q4 GDP has shifted to the upside, but we still see zero growth.
- A fall in inventories is the key risk to Germany’s Q4 GDP print, offsetting a further rise in consumption.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We expect CPI inflation to remain at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.- A huge base effect from falling motor fuel prices in December 2023 will boost inflation…
- …But that will be offset by a tobacco-price base effect and weak airfares due to an early CPI collection date.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Don't panic about the prices index just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Look beyond the headlines for a slightly better story.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: ECB doves were saved by France and Italy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: ECB doves were saved by France and Italy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: December BRC distorted by the late Black Friday, underlying retail sales volumes continue growing modestly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction output continues to grow solidly, despite PMI drop in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: New car registrations growth continues to recover from the Budget-induced October weakness.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Profits are very sensitive to GDP growth, and reliably lead employment growth at turning points.
- Much weaker growth in profits would suggest trouble ahead for the broader economy.
- Seasonals are pushing down claims; they also fell in the first week of prior years with identical calendars.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Fiscal concerns and global uncertainty
- Colombian Peso — Starting Q1 on a stronger footing
- Chilean Peso — Struggling amid global risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A crash in major orders pushed German factory orders down in November; surveys remain poor.
- The upturn in German retail sales in Q4 is on track, despite soft data for October and November.
- French consumers’ unemployment fears are soaring, warning of a further rise in joblessness in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in November, driven by services and mining.
- Upside risks to our call could arise from energy output, GP appointments and hospitality.
- We continue to forecast 0.1% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Another soft inflation print in France; soft core in Switzerland.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
