Huge revisions put a more positive spin on Philippine sales
Oil-sensitive components drive the December rise in inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Peru’s inflation ended 2024 in the target range; this will allow the BCRP to cut the main rate to neutral.
- Risks loom for the economy; political uncertainty and global trade dynamics challenge future growth.
- Brazil’s trade balance shrank in Q4, but we expect a gradual upturn in 2025 as domestic demand slows.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Philippine inflation surprised to the upside in December, but the culprits should be temporary…
- …We still see average inflation of just 2.4% in 2025; core inflation isn’t yet making a real comeback.
- Thai CPI was softer than expected last month, and the 2025 consensus could do with a downgrade.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s currency is under pressure from expectations of more PBoC easing and a less dovish Fed.
- Foreign reserves fell sizeably in December, driven primarily by currency and bond valuation effects.
- Some of China’s policy firepower has been saved, to be deployed depending on future US trade policy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ inflation data are in line with further gradualism from the ECB this month, implying a 25bp cut.
- We still see little chance of either EZ headline or core inflation making a perfect landing at 2%.
- Outright deflation is a remote risk in Switzerland; the SNB will make a final 25bp rate cut in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Weak airfares inflation in December—due to early CPI collection—should offset fading energy deflation.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise in the New Year, reaching 3.2% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Hot; EZ inflation to overshoot the consensus tomorrow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth in Vietnam surprised to the upside in Q4, rising to 7.6% from 7.4% in Q3…
- …Services popped, thanks to a leap in tourism, but we’re sceptical about the strength in overall retail.
- Industrial growth—while still healthy—moderated; signs point to more softness in early 2025, at least.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chile’s decent economic growth continued in Q4, yet inflation pressures pose significant issues ahead.
- Improved consumption is driving growth, but mining and services are faltering; more rate cuts are needed.
- BCCh’s recent rate cuts signal cautious optimism, but external noise and rising labour costs are threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- German inflation overshoots expectations; we now see EZ HICP inflation at 2.6% in December.
- A rebound in services pulled the EZ PMIs higher in December, amid still-depressed manufacturing.
- Seasonals, investor sentiment and firming real M1 growth promise a further rise in the EZ PMI in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We cut our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.1% quarter-to-quarter after the disappointing December PMI.
- But the Q4 BCC survey indicates employment is holding up better than the disastrous PMI implies.
- The MPC will wait for the hard data to roll in before giving firmer guidance on interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Relief in the PMIs; investor sentiment and seasonals signal further gains ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Relief in the PMIs; investor sentiment and seasonals signal further gains ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A scorching end to 2024 for Vietnamese services
Exports in Vietnam are once again finding their feet
Not buying the five-month high in Vietnamese sales growth
Vietnamese inflation stays under 3% for a fourth month
Turnaround in Thai transportation & communication CPI should soon peak
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's Caixin services PMI rises at year-end, despite sagging export orders and sentiment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Early signs of improvement, but still depressed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
