Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: China’s foreign reserves rise unexpectedly in November, with policy banks likely shouldering some outflow pressures
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Nationwide’s house price index rises in December to cap a recovery in the housing market in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI drops in December as demand weakens and sentiment sours.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Colombia’s BanRep is adopting a cautious stance amid weaker COP and persistent inflation pressures.
- Fiscal pressures and political dynamics are complicating the economic recovery across LatAm.
- Emerging-market risks are rising as global financial conditions tighten and external noise intensifies.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Manufacturing payrolls have been falling for several months, and construction looks vulnerable too.
- Job losses in these sectors have often signaled trouble for the broader labor market and economy.
- We think the economy is in a more fragile position than markets and the commentariat appreciate.
Samuel TombsUS
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN slipped in December, to 50.7, as its DM members faltered…
- …But the headline is largely stabilising, as orders find their feet while price pressures remain muted.
- Indonesian CPI sprung no surprises in December; consensus seems blind to further food disinflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The December PMI reports Korean manufacturers at their most pessimistic since June 2020.
- Export growth showed a markedly slower trend in Q4, with broad weakness across regional markets.
- The government forecasts export growth to plunge to 1.5% in 2025, from 8.2% in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We cut our Q4 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, following a string of weak data.
- The labour market remains tight, and wage growth is still running above target-consistent levels.
- The MPC will proceed cautiously and cut three times in 2025: in February, May and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- German unemployment held steady in December, but surveys warn of further increases in Q1.
- We think EZ HICP inflation rose by 0.3pp in December, to 2.5%, 0.1pp above the consensus.
- The upturn in German retail sales is intact, but manufacturing is still stuck in the mud.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sustained weakness in manufacturing; upturn in real M1 growth is accelerating.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's Caixin PMI shows slowing growth
Korean manufacturing sentiment takes a nosedive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese manufacturing growth ebbs at year-end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Reassuringly unchanged readings to close out 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
December manufacturing let down by developed ASEAN
Reassuringly unchanged readings for Indonesian CPI to close out 2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Q3 GDP growth revised down to zero, but we expect a rebound and stronger growth in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The end of year declines in both initial and continuing claims are due to seasonal adjustment problems.
- The recent pick-up in WARN layoff filings suggests initial claims will rise over the coming months.
- Unemployment likely rose again last month, despite lower claims, driven by rising long-term joblessness.
Samuel TombsUS
- The deceptively inflated rate of Thai retail sales growth masks a tepid response to the handout…
- …Consumer confidence is at least stabilising; rising wage growth, while encouraging, looks very fragile.
- Core IP in India continues to recover from the August plunge, with monthly trends now improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs suggest manufacturing in the Eurozone remained mired in recession at the end of 2024…
- …But we still hope US tariff front-running will lift the hard data for Q4 and Q1, in time.
- The upturn in real M1 growth continued midway through Q4; ignore this signal at your peril.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Nationwide house price index for December signals continued momentum in the housing market.
- Official house price inflation will rise to 4% year-over-year in December, with upside risks to that call.
- Sticky borrowing costs will keep annual house price inflation at 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
