Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The deceptively inflated rate of Thai retail sales growth masks a tepid response to the handout…
- …Consumer confidence is at least stabilising; rising wage growth, while encouraging, looks very fragile.
- Core IP in India continues to recover from the August plunge, with monthly trends now improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs suggest manufacturing in the Eurozone remained mired in recession at the end of 2024…
- …But we still hope US tariff front-running will lift the hard data for Q4 and Q1, in time.
- The upturn in real M1 growth continued midway through Q4; ignore this signal at your peril.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Nationwide house price index for December signals continued momentum in the housing market.
- Official house price inflation will rise to 4% year-over-year in December, with upside risks to that call.
- Sticky borrowing costs will keep annual house price inflation at 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We have revised down our forecast for Q4 GDP growth to 2%, from 2.5% previously.
- Recent data point to a huge slump in investment in aircraft, and a significant drag from net foreign trade.
- Attempts to get ahead of threatened tariffs probably will distort the GDP data in the early part of 2025.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Our final forecast sees GDP growth in Vietnam cooling to 6.5% in Q4, from 7.4% in Q3…
- …The moderation should be broad-based, though quirky residual seasonal effects pose upside risks.
- Household spending is still struggling; the recent pop in car sales is a policy-induced head-fake.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s December official PMIs were a mixed bag with the manufacturing gauge losing ground slightly.
- The broad-based rise in the services PMI is encouraging; but it's only one-month's reading.
- The uptick in the construction PMI was likely mainly due to short-term factors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Uncertainty over EZ fiscal policy at the start of 2025, but the outlook for monetary policy is clearer.
- Data released over the holidays confirm stellar Q3 GDP growth, and slightly higher inflation, in Spain.
- Early 2025 data to signal still-difficult conditions in industry, but a continued upturn in M1 growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
HOUSE PRICES REBOUND IN OCTOBER...
- ...AND HOUSE PRICE INFLATION WILL HIT 4% IN DECEMBER...
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.
Samuel TombsUS
Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Consumer sentiment takes a hit as the Holidays approach.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Rising IESI still points to downside risks for Q4 GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Public sector borrowing likely marginally below October Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales bounce back in November but disappoint relative to consensus.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- - CHINA’S POLICY MACHINES POINT TO MORE EASING IN 2025
- - THE ‘TRUMP FACTOR’ GIVES THE BOJ PAUSE FOR THOUGHT
- - BOK SWAYED BY DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL FACTORS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
INCREASED INFLATION THREATS AND EXTERNAL RISKS…
- …ARE FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
