In one line: Up again, in line with our call for a rebound in GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ugly crash in the services PMI is a fluke, we hope
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Ugly crash in the services PMI is a fluke, we hope
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan’s headline consumer inflation gains steam on food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI shows activity spluttering
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean working-day exports fell due to holiday effects; surging auto exports points to front-loading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's consumer inflation boosted by food inflation
Korea's WDA-exports drop during the holiday, despite auto shipment surge
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Indian services wake up from its slumber, but a Q1 GDP slowdown is still in play
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA’S CONSUMER SPENDING WILL SLOW POST-HOLIDAY
- - JAPAN’S DOMESTIC DEMAND STILL TRAILING NET EXPORTS
- - BOK LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Further increases are likely as political uncertainty abates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Sales stabilised in December but headwinds persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing orders tick up and price pressures fall in February, but the sector remains weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Construction boost to growth in Q4 unlikely to repeat in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
- The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
- Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s GDP contracted in Q4, with weak industrial and agricultural sectors driving the decline.
- The IGAE point to a subpar Q1; rising external— trade—uncertainty weighs heavily on growth.
- Banxico faces a tough balancing act, as inflation risks and policy noise cloud its rate-cut decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam has officially raised its 2025 GDP growth target to 8%; its doable if M2 doesn’t fall too fast…
- …But interest rates are clearly on an uptrend, and the dark cloud of NPLs is still hanging over banks.
- We expect growth in India to bounce to 6% in Q4, but most of this will come from technicalities.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s consumer inflation jumped in January, largely on the back of rice and vegetable inflation.
- Core inflation is also creeping up, reinforcing the BoJ’s de termination to keep normalising policy this year.
- But Governor Ueda on Friday signalled a readiness to intervene to prevent yields from getting too far ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The upturn in the EZ PMIs stalled in February, due to a plunge in the French services index.
- Near-term outlook for services output is still decent, and the PMIs signal green shoots in industry, again.
- ECB hawks will focus on rebounding services prices; doves will note weak French labour-market data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI signals an almost catastrophic jobs outlook, but more reliable official data are better.
- The official employment data look more plausible to us; payrolls have stalled rather than collapsed.
- Inflation is proving stubborn, as firms increasingly pass through cost increases to prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
