Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales / Consumer Confidence

 The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, November

Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.

Samuel TombsUS

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, December, 2024

• In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, December, 2024

• In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: Advance EC Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, December 2024

In one line: Consumer sentiment takes a hit as the Holidays approach. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, November

Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, December, 2024

• In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, December 2024

In one line: Rising IESI still points to downside risks for Q4 GDP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, November 2024

• In one line:Public sector borrowing likely marginally below October Budget forecasts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, November 2024

• In one line:Retail sales bounce back in November but disappoint relative to consensus.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

December 2024 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S POLICY MACHINES POINT TO MORE EASING IN 2025
• - THE ‘TRUMP FACTOR’ GIVES THE BOJ PAUSE FOR THOUGHT
• - BOK SWAYED BY DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL FACTORS

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

December 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

INCREASED INFLATION THREATS AND EXTERNAL RISKS…

• …ARE FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 December 2024 US Monitor Tariff front-running is already lifting growth in consumers' spending

• Big increases in purchases of high-value durable goods largely drove November's brisk consumption.
• Real after-tax income growth will slow next year amid modest wage rises and falling savings income.
• Spending growth will lull in mid-2025 even without tariffs, as people are acting now like they are coming.

Samuel TombsUS

23 December 2024 LatAm Monitor Elevated external risk to limit Banxico's ability to cut rates faster

• Banxico likely will continue to cut rates in 2025, looking for opportunities to accelerate the pace…
• …But increased domestic policy risk and external noise under Trump 2.0 will demand prudence.
• The BRL sell-off eased late last week thanks to BCB’s actions, but fiscal reassurance is what’s needed.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 December 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Should we worry about India's gold rush and ballooning deficit?

• India’s deficit blow-out in November was down mainly to gold imports, which are just normalising…
• …Safe-haven demand for gold isn’t relevant now, and the current account gap is still manageable.
• The CBC’s ongoing pause remains justified; anxieties over the property market will continue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 December 2024 China+ Monitor China's exports slow in November; "Trump factor" weighs on outlook

• China export momentum weakened in November, driven by slowing shipments across key markets.
• The slowdown was broad-based, with both high-tech and low-tech exports decelerating sharply.
• Export demand is unlikely to offset domestic demand deficiencies in 2025 amid Trump policy uncertainty.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

23 December 2024 EZ Monitor What would it take for the ECB to slash rates by 50bp in January?

• President Lagarde said data in coming months—not weeks—will offer clarity on the ECB’s next moves.
• This lowers the chance of a 50bp rate cut in January; we think the Bank will opt for a smaller 25bp cut.
• Three conditions, though, may push the Bank to make the next cut a jumbo one.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 December 2024 UK Monitor Sterling to hold its ground in 2025 as the MPC cuts only gradually

• Sterling had a strong year against a basket of major currencies; it will hold these levels in 2025.
• Favourable interest rate differentials between the UK and major peers will support the GBP.
• Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.27 and GBPEUR at 1.21 at end-2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, November

This uptick in home sales will prove temporary.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, December 2024

• In one line: Dovish vote but cautious majority; February rate cut odds-on but only gradual interest rate reductions after. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK