Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Big increases in purchases of high-value durable goods largely drove November's brisk consumption.
- Real after-tax income growth will slow next year amid modest wage rises and falling savings income.
- Spending growth will lull in mid-2025 even without tariffs, as people are acting now like they are coming.
Samuel TombsUS
- Banxico likely will continue to cut rates in 2025, looking for opportunities to accelerate the pace…
- …But increased domestic policy risk and external noise under Trump 2.0 will demand prudence.
- The BRL sell-off eased late last week thanks to BCB’s actions, but fiscal reassurance is what’s needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s deficit blow-out in November was down mainly to gold imports, which are just normalising…
- …Safe-haven demand for gold isn’t relevant now, and the current account gap is still manageable.
- The CBC’s ongoing pause remains justified; anxieties over the property market will continue.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China export momentum weakened in November, driven by slowing shipments across key markets.
- The slowdown was broad-based, with both high-tech and low-tech exports decelerating sharply.
- Export demand is unlikely to offset domestic demand deficiencies in 2025 amid Trump policy uncertainty.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- President Lagarde said data in coming months—not weeks—will offer clarity on the ECB’s next moves.
- This lowers the chance of a 50bp rate cut in January; we think the Bank will opt for a smaller 25bp cut.
- Three conditions, though, may push the Bank to make the next cut a jumbo one.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sterling had a strong year against a basket of major currencies; it will hold these levels in 2025.
- Favourable interest rate differentials between the UK and major peers will support the GBP.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.27 and GBPEUR at 1.21 at end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
This uptick in home sales will prove temporary.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Dovish vote but cautious majority; February rate cut odds-on but only gradual interest rate reductions after.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Not as bad as PMIs but still in line with our view that GDP will flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Politics still holding back consumer confidence.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...
...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 0.13% increase in the November core PCE deflator, easing fears about sticky inflation.
- The unemployment rate probably still rose in December, despite the slight fall in continuing claims.
- The recent upturn in home sales is unlikely to last now that mortgage rates are rising again.
Samuel TombsUS
- A deteriorating near-term inflation outlook will force the BCCh to move to the sidelines in Q1.
- Colombia’s economy started Q4 robustly, but it is too soon to bet on a smooth ride in H1.
- Fiscal noise is forcing the BCB to intervene in Brazil’s FX market, but this will be insufficient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s central bank left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, with one dissenter voting for a rate hike.
- Governor Ueda was less hawkish; he needs more clarity on wages and Mr. Trump’s policy before hiking.
- The BoJ didn’t want to tie its hands, keeping a January hike alive while making March plausible.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Three MPC members supporting an immediate rate cut keeps a February reduction odds-on…
- ...But it is not a dead cert, as the cautious MPC minutes give rate-setters the option to skip February.
- MPC members went for flexibility, eschewing any commitment to cutting at specific meetings.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
