Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Not as bad as PMIs but still in line with our view that GDP will flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Politics still holding back consumer confidence.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...
...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 0.13% increase in the November core PCE deflator, easing fears about sticky inflation.
- The unemployment rate probably still rose in December, despite the slight fall in continuing claims.
- The recent upturn in home sales is unlikely to last now that mortgage rates are rising again.
Samuel TombsUS
- A deteriorating near-term inflation outlook will force the BCCh to move to the sidelines in Q1.
- Colombia’s economy started Q4 robustly, but it is too soon to bet on a smooth ride in H1.
- Fiscal noise is forcing the BCB to intervene in Brazil’s FX market, but this will be insufficient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s central bank left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, with one dissenter voting for a rate hike.
- Governor Ueda was less hawkish; he needs more clarity on wages and Mr. Trump’s policy before hiking.
- The BoJ didn’t want to tie its hands, keeping a January hike alive while making March plausible.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Three MPC members supporting an immediate rate cut keeps a February reduction odds-on…
- ...But it is not a dead cert, as the cautious MPC minutes give rate-setters the option to skip February.
- MPC members went for flexibility, eschewing any commitment to cutting at specific meetings.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Political uncertainty weighed on business sentiment in France in December…
- ...Politically-driven sentiment moves don’t usually translate into hard data, but growth will still slow.
- Services trade figures in the EZ current account point to downside risk to our EZ net trade call in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Multi-family volatility obscures the weak big picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Most FOMC members envisage easing by just 50bp in 2025, but rising unemployment will spur more.
- WARN and Challenger data point to a renewed rise in jobless claims and an above-consensus print today.
- A rare rise in the Leading Economic Index in November will grab attention today, but it should be ignored.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — Fiscal risk and political noise
- Mexico — At a crossroads ahead of a tricky H1
- Argentina — Emerging from years of economic turmoil
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia and the Bank of Thailand stood pat on rates yesterday, in line with market expectations.
- BI’s anxiety over the IDR is probably a red herring, and fiscal policy is in no position to provide support.
- Pay more heed to the BoT’s increasingly worried tone, not its still-rosy GDP forecasts for 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November, to 2.2%—rather than 2.3%—from 2.0%.
- It will increase further in December, and risks to our call for a 2.5% print are to the upside.
- The headline will fall in early 2025, allowing the ECB to cut rates further, less than markets expect though.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A tobacco duty hike combined with base effects to lift headline CPI inflation to 2.6% in December.
- Tax hikes, fading energy deflation and stubborn services prices will raise CPI inflation to 3.1% in April.
- The MPC has to balance weak output against rising inflation; we look for three 25bp rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Output and inflation head in opposite directions, leaving the MPC with a difficult trade-off.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding house prices show buyers are unfazed by stabilising mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
