- In one line: Rebounding house prices show buyers are unfazed by stabilising mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Duties and base effects drive up CPI inflation, which will rise to 3.1% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
INDIA’S SLUMP HAS BEEN LONG IN THE MAKING
- …A SOFT END TO THE YEAR FOR ASEAN MANUFACTURING
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
STAGFLATIONARY TAXES = GRADUAL RATE CUTS...
- …BUT SOURING SENTIMENT MAY FORCE FASTER ACTION
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Construction escaped recession in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November; another rise this month is likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November; another rise this month is likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: An anti-climactic end to the year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - FOMC likely to follow up a 25bp easing this week with January pause
- EUROZONE - No more restrictive policy at the ECB, and a jumbo cut by the SNB
- UK - MPC preview: on hold, and repeating the “gradual” mantra
- CHINA+ - CEWC takeaways: China prioritises demand-boosting policies for 2025
- EM ASIA - Indian food CPI now subsiding; the 2025 story is no one-way street
- LATAM - Great problems require great solutions: COPOM hikes by 100bp
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
Homebuilders seem too optimistic about the outlook.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Stagnation will remain the story in 2025.
Samuel TombsUS
Consumers aren’t throwing in the towel just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The end of the easing cycle in Chile is nearing, as domestic and external uncertainty tick higher.
- Colombia’s BanRep will continue to cut rates from still-elevated levels, though fiscal noise’s a constraint.
- Banxico is considering accelerating easing, but near term threats likely will impede faster progress.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Higher pay growth and better jobs gains than the surveys will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- China’s activity data largely disappointed the market, especially consumption and investment.
- A ray of light in the property sector, with new- and second-home prices falling at a much slower pace.
- The President’s CEWC speech pointed to expansion of existing stimulus to boost domestic demand.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Job growth has stalled but is still holding up better than tanking business surveys of hiring intentions.
- Private pay growth is likely to far exceed the MPC’s forecast of 5.1% year-over-year in Q4.
- A renewed trade-off between supporting output and fighting inflation will keep the MPC cutting cautiously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
