- In one line: The first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI’s first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year
The impressive run-up in Philippine sales at end-2024 owes partly to short-lived tail
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Banxico signals further rate cuts amid disinflation, economic slowdown and easing external pressures.
- The better inflation outlook, however, faces threats from US policy risk and domestic policy noise.
- The Board will likely cut rates to 8% this year, if President Trump doesn’t get in the way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The RBI finally started its easing cycle, cutting the repo rate to 6.25% amid slowing GDP and CPI…
- …This should be followed by an immediate cut in April; the new Governor is more for ward-looking.
- The shift to a debt-to-GDP target from 2026/27 will still necessitate a further consolidation of the deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Attempts by the ECB to persuade markets to give up focusing on the neutral rate are laudable, but futile.
- The ECB’s own forecasts suggest that the policy rate should stabilise at neutral, wherever that is.
- EZ industrial production fell sharply in December, but we look for a solid rebound in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
- Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
- We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: The Construction PMI tanks, but was driven by erratic falls and should improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales still rose in Q4, and further increases are likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still pointing to underlying weakness in construction.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Everyone seems to have forgotten the Tet noise in Vietnamese trade
A more believable retail sales print from Vietnam, no doubt flattered by Tet
Healthcare costs provide Vietamese inflation with a further—much bigger—jolt
Thai inflation continues to float just a touch above the lower bound of BoT's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Exports and public spending helped to keep Indonesia’s ship absurdly 'steady’ in Q4
Philippine inflation should start to move sideways from here
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Signs of underlying strength, despite boost from major orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: The first quarterly contraction in more than a year, and the outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
