- The IFO BCI sank in December, pointing to downside risk to our call for German GDP to stagnate in Q4.
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, perked up, in line with rising equities.
- EZ trade took a hit in October; front-loading ahead of higher tariffs will prevent a Q4 drag from net trade.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens in October as erratics weigh on the headline balance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Economy grinds to a halt as Budget uncertainty and tariff threats weigh on businesses.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence grinds higher in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A poor start to the quarter due to tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: German investor sentiment recovers; EZ goods trade takes a hit in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sinking to its lowest since May 2020, and the first Covid lockdowns.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mr. Milei’s policies in his first year as President have led to historic disinflation and economic stabilisation.
- Strengthening ties with the US suggest Argentina could be the regional winner under Trump 2.0.
- Hurdles for next year include sustained disinflation, legislative challenges and external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The December PMI shows firms cutting hiring and raising prices in the wake of tax hikes and tariff threats.
- Manufacturing growth has been hit hard by tariff worries; services are rebounding as uncertainty falls.
- The re-emerging output-inflation trade-off will keep the MPC cutting interest rates only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMIs in December were still a dovish signal for ECB policymakers…
- ...and the ECB President made it clear further easing was on the way in her speech in Lithuania…
- ...But she failed in her promise to clarify the Bank’s level of restrictiveness.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- India’s flash PMIs for December— especially services—were punchy, but the slowdown isn’t over.
- We’re still waiting for other metrics to confirm the supposed strength in hiring indicated by the PMIs.
- The sudden leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus in November is hardly wor th celebrating; imports fell.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales likely grew strongly in November, as the drag from Hurricane Milton in October unwound.
- But mounting headwinds for households suggest weaker growth in consumers' spending in 2025.
- The consensus for growth in November production likely overlooks falls in mining and utilities output.
Samuel TombsUS
Some signs of pre-tariff inventory accumulation, but few firms are raising prices.
Samuel TombsUS
Services growth still robust, but the inflation outlook is encouraging.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Another leap in gold imports drags the deficit to a fresh low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still no sign of a pick up in new orders in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
