- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing downturn is over, but growth in output in the second half of this year will be sluggish.
- High mortgage rates and excess new home inventory suggest single-family housing starts will fall further.
- We look today for a pick-up in initial jobless claims, but the data are prone to unpredictable swings in July.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
- Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
- Chile — Boric navigates pension and energy reforms
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
- …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
- Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July.
- Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe.
- Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
The single-family construction boom seems to be fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Dragged lower by a crash in exports.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - The June core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.15%, below the Fed’s forecast
- EUROZONE - Will the ECB signal a September rate cut this week? We think so
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
CHINA+ - China hits a soft patch in Q2, as domestic demand dwindles
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing recovery likely still on the cards in Singapore
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The jump in core retail sales in June has the hallmarks of a weather-related blip; expect a pullback in July.
- We expect partial recoveries in June housing starts and building permits, but a poor outturn for Q2 overall.
- Manufacturing output likely grew briskly in both June and Q2, but the recovery will slow in Q3.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Colombia’s manufacturing sector is struggling, while Peru’s economy is showing outstanding resilience.
- High interest rates and inflation dampen Colombia’s growth; domestic demand is improving in Peru.
- Political uncertainty is hindering Colombia’s recovery; Peru’s outlook is brightening, despite politics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Household demand for credit rose, and the fall in firms’ demand decelerated in Q2…
- ...Banks tightened standards at a slower pace than in past quarters, supporting lending growth…
- ...The subsequent pick-up in GDP growth will be gradual, however; not something for the ECB to fear.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The OBR’s forthcoming Fiscal Sustainability Report will deem debt to be on an unsustainable path.
- The report will provide support to our call that the government will have to raise taxes.
- We think the report will place renewed focus on the need for a long-term plan for the public finances.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
