In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still no sign of a pick up in new orders in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A not-so-welcome leap in the trade surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A solid end to 2024 for India’s PMIs, but let’s wait for the final numbers
WPI food inflation in India has finally turned a corner
A not-so-welcome leap in Indonesia's trade surplus for November
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Looser labour market will spur more Fed easing...
but tariff-led inflation will slow the pace, soon
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A decent start to Q4, but downside risks remain for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A decent start to Q4, but downside risks remain for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: The recession in industry continued in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sinking; exports to the US likely stung by port strikes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Budget uncertainty, Mr. Trump’s tariff threats and a weak consumer hit October GDP.
- We lower our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter; downside risks are building.
- The MPC will still be cautious; inflation expectations surged in Q4 to their highest since May 2022.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Relief in the PMIs today? We hope so, but the overall message from the survey will remain negative.
- Germany’s exports slumped in October, likely due in part to port strikes in the US.
- EZ manufacturing should remain on the back foot in Q4, while France gets a new Prime Minister.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Peru’s BCRP signals a data-driven approach as inflation ticks up and economic activity improves.
- Brazil’s economic data surged beyond expectations, driven by a strong labour market and fiscal support.
- This strengthens the case for continued interest rate hikes, which will bring activity back down to earth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indian inflation is back in the RBI’s range thanks to cooler food CPI; expect more of the latter in 2025…
- …But the consensus for next year is too benign, especially with core CPI set to normalise constantly.
- The further rise in IP growth in October is only a small reprieve; underlying momentum is still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference is ‘all hat and no cattle’; consumption is the sole priority in 2025.
- The authorities seem to have run out of new ideas to boost the economy in the face of external uncertainty.
- In 2025, expect monetary policy easing, the budget deficit ceiling to be raised and more structural reforms.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Brazil’s COPOM intensifies the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation expectations rise widely.
- Further rate hikes are in the pipeline; focus is now on the government’s ability to control the fiscal deficit.
- Mexico’s industrial sector is struggling, with uncertainty looming large until Trump 2.0 fears disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
