- Brazil’s COPOM intensifies the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation expectations rise widely.
- Further rate hikes are in the pipeline; focus is now on the government’s ability to control the fiscal deficit.
- Mexico’s industrial sector is struggling, with uncertainty looming large until Trump 2.0 fears disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Ignore PPI egg-flation; components relevant for the core PCE were soft, implying a mere 0.13% increase.
- The PPI data also point to a further decline in inflation in core services ex-rent in Q1.
- Low initial jobless claims paint an overly rosy picture of the labor market, given hiring is so weak.
Samuel TombsUS
- China headline consumer inflation is on the brink of deflation, but core inflation offers a ray of hope.
- Producer price deflation is narrowing on stimulus related construction material production.
- China needs to unleash more demand-side policies to see a sustained recovery.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The ECB eases by 25bp, with the SNB delivering a 50bp cut; bang in line with our expectations.
- Yesterday marks the start of a new regime for the ECB, but where is that neutral rate again?
- We think the SNB will ease again in March, by 25bp, which will be the final cut in this cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Falls in business surveys driven by Budget uncertainty have been exacerbated by Mr. Trump’s tariff threats.
- Uncertainty will persist given Mr. Trump’s election, posing downside risk to our UK growth forecasts.
- But growth will hold up better than business surveys suggest, as they are overreacting to policy worries.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Core PCE components signal a mere 0.13% November increase.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Dovish, but staying open on the path in 2025 and the level of the neutral rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Dovish, but staying open on the path in 2025 and the level of the neutral rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: As expected; no longer need for a restrictive policy rate. Where is neutral?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: As expected; no longer need for a restrictive policy rate. Where is neutral?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Solid, but tight financial conditions will be a drag in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to Q4, and the near-term outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Martin Schlegel comes out swinging with jumbo cut at his first meeting as SNB Chairman.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Martin Schlegel comes out swinging with jumbo cut at his first meeting as SNB Chairman.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The RICS roars higher as buyers rush to beat stamp duty changes and the MPC’s second rate cut feeds through.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep Bank Rate on hold at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Weakening business surveys and stalling job gains need to be set against firm wage and inflation signals.
- The new shocks hitting the economy are stagflationary, which will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Strong employment growth and a falling saving rate helped Spain outperform in 2024...
- ...These will be the reasons why Spanish GDP growth outpaces the rest of the big four again in 2025.
- Key risks to the outlook include political uncertainty and the crackdown on tourist appartments.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
