In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Improving external demand supports Singapore's consensus-beating Q2 GDP
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Summer distortions hide the underlying trend.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The June core PCE deflator likely undershot the Fed’s implied forecast pace for a second straight month.
- The jump in PPI trade services looks like noise; margins likely will come under renewed pressure in Q3.
- People expect higher unemployment and lower inflation; the Fed needs to ease, soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Peru's BCRP held rates for a second straight meeting, amid sticky core inflation, but eyes future easing.
- A mixed performance for Mexico's industrial sector: construction is solid, manufacturing is struggling.
- Banxico's minutes lean towards a rate cut in August; softening economic activity supports this view.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Singapore’s Q2 GDP beat the consensus thanks to the recovery in goods-producing industries...
- ...Powered by an upswing in manufacturing and robust construction activity.
- We raise our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.4% previously, up from 1.1% in 2023.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s exports continued to recover in June, while imports fell, leading to a record trade surplus.
- Shipments to ASEAN were strong, and to the US also picked up; falling imports signal weak demand.
- Near-term exports will be helped by a favorable base; EV export uncertainty due to tariffs will linger.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German services inflation, ex-rents, is still sizzling, at just under 5%, but it will fall soon.
- Core inflation in Germany will drop further between now and the end of the year, to just over 2.5%.
- The Summer Olympics will likely lift French core inflation by 0.1pp in July, and by 0.3pp in August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We raise our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2025 to 1.6%, from 1.4% previously.
- Strong GDP growth so far this year suggests that the drag from interest rate hikes is fading.
- A 3.2% rise in household real income in 2024 will power GDP gains of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Falling, and survey data point to further declines ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BNM held its policy rate this month, as it waits to see the impact of the diesel-subsidy removal…
- …A relatively strong growth outlook is providing it with the bandwidth for a continued pause.
- Malaysian GDP growth likely improved to 4.8% year-over-year in Q2, from 4.2% in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
